The Numbers Desk
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North Carolina
2-0 · ATS 1-1 · O/U 0-2
at
Clemson
1-1 · ATS 0-2 · O/U 1-1

College football Week 3 · Sat, Sep 19, 12:00 PM ET

The number

Vegas
Clemson -3.5
total 43.5
Our line
Clemson -3.1
total 42.1
Raw model
Clemson -1.7
North Carolina 17.4 · Clemson 19.1
no edge

Edge: spread 0.4 pts · total 1.4 pts · model weight 20%

Why

  1. 1.Our number makes it Clemson by 3.1; Vegas has Clemson by 3.5. That is a 0.4-point edge which is not enough to act on.
  2. 2.Power ratings: Clemson #86, North Carolina #45 of 137 on opponent-adjusted efficiency; SP+ anchors the early-season number.
  3. 3.North Carolina's pass game (204 passing yds/game, 77th in FBS) meets a Clemson pass defense that ranks 108th in FBS (277 allowed).
  4. 4.Against the spread this season: Clemson 0-2 (0%), North Carolina 1-1.
  5. 5.Trust level: 20% on our numbers and 80% on the market, with 1 game of data behind the thinner side. Ratings this early are pulled toward the league average.

The trenches

Offensive line against the defensive front. Grades are ours, from where each unit ranks on these numbers.

North Carolina line vs Clemson front

North Carolina DClemson D
MetricNorth CarolinaClemson allows
Line yards per carryyards the line is credited with on every run3.26 (#37) B3.29 (#100) D
Stuff rateruns stopped at or behind the line16% (#55) C11% (#117) F
Power success3rd/4th and 2 or less, converted on the ground0% (#122) F83% (#86) C
Sack ratesacks per dropback10% (#124) F3% (#86) C
Yards per carry4.2 (#91) D4.8 (#84) C

Clemson line vs North Carolina front

Clemson FNorth Carolina C
MetricClemsonNorth Carolina allows
Line yards per carryyards the line is credited with on every run2.29 (#124) F2.94 (#62) C
Stuff rateruns stopped at or behind the line33% (#132) F15% (#91) D
Power success3rd/4th and 2 or less, converted on the ground0% (#129) F75% (#65) C
Sack ratesacks per dropback10% (#122) F6% (#55) C
Yards per carry3.8 (#105) D4.7 (#78) C

Receivers vs the secondary

Each passing game against the pass defense across from it, plus the receivers’ last games.

North Carolina passing vs Clemson secondary

North Carolina CClemson C
MetricNorth CarolinaClemson allows
Yards per pass play6.8 (#69) C6.4 (#54) C
Completion %56% (#104) D58% (#41) B
Explosive pass ratepasses of 16+ yards20% (#31) B14% (#54) C
Passing yards per game204 (#77) C277 (#108) D
Sack ratepressure the front gets home10% (#124) F3% (#86) C
  • Jelani Thurman: 83 yds/game on 4.0 catches over the last 2 games, 1 TD (94, 71)
  • Jordan Shipp: 48 yds/game on 3.5 catches over the last 2 games (71, 25)
  • C.J. Sadler: 37 yds/game on 2.0 catches over the last 2 games (7, 66)

Clemson passing vs North Carolina secondary

Clemson DNorth Carolina B
MetricClemsonNorth Carolina allows
Yards per pass play4.8 (#114) D4.8 (#17) A
Completion %60% (#84) C63% (#67) C
Explosive pass ratepasses of 16+ yards10% (#108) D9% (#22) B
Passing yards per game152 (#104) D163 (#31) B
Sack ratepressure the front gets home10% (#122) F6% (#55) C
  • T.J. Moore: 67 yds/game on 5.5 catches over the last 2 games, 1 TD (31, 103)
  • Bryant Wesco Jr.: 32 yds/game on 4.0 catches over the last 2 games (29, 35)
  • Tyler Brown: 28 yds/game on 3.0 catches over the last 2 games (11, 44)

North Carolina

Points per game
15.0
allows 10.0
last game
15 pts/game
allowing 10
Rushing
104 yds/game
allows 159
Passing
204 yds/game
allows 163

QB Billy Edwards (238 pass yds/game, 2 TD, 0 INT) · RB Benjamin Hall (43 rush yds/game) · WR Benjamin Hall (14 rec yds/game)

Clemson

Points per game
16.0
allows 29.0
last 2 games
16 pts/game
allowing 29
Rushing
108 yds/game
allows 174
Passing
152 yds/game
allows 277

QB Tait Reynolds (100 pass yds/game, 0 TD, 0 INT) · RB Gideon Davidson (41 rush yds/game) · WR Bryant Wesco Jr. (32 rec yds/game)