The Numbers Desk
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Coastal Carolina
1-1 · ATS 2-0 · O/U 1-1
at
Delaware
1-1 · ATS 2-0 · O/U 1-1

College football Week 3 · Sat, Sep 19, 11:30 AM ET

The number

Vegas
Delaware -4.5
total 57.5
Our line
Delaware -3.9
total 57.7
Raw model
Delaware -1.6
Coastal Carolina 28.6 · Delaware 30.1
no edge

Edge: spread 0.6 pts · total 0.2 pts · model weight 20%

Why

  1. 1.Our number makes it Delaware by 3.9; Vegas has Delaware by 4.5. That is a 0.6-point edge which is not enough to act on.
  2. 2.Power ratings: Delaware #87, Coastal Carolina #60 of 137 on opponent-adjusted efficiency; SP+ anchors the early-season number.
  3. 3.Delaware's run game (152 rushing yds/game, 62nd in FBS) meets a Coastal Carolina run defense that ranks bottom five in FBS (134th of 137) (291 allowed).
  4. 4.Coastal Carolina's pass game (326 passing yds/game, 16th in FBS) meets a Delaware pass defense that ranks 79th in FBS (230 allowed).
  5. 5.Against the spread this season: Delaware 2-0 (100%), Coastal Carolina 2-0.
  6. 6.Trust level: 20% on our numbers and 80% on the market, with 1 game of data behind the thinner side. Ratings this early are pulled toward the league average.

The trenches

Offensive line against the defensive front. Grades are ours, from where each unit ranks on these numbers.

Coastal Carolina line vs Delaware front

Coastal Carolina DDelaware C
MetricCoastal CarolinaDelaware allows
Line yards per carryyards the line is credited with on every run2.49 (#110) D2.41 (#19) A
Stuff rateruns stopped at or behind the line27% (#124) F24% (#23) B
Power success3rd/4th and 2 or less, converted on the ground50% (#95) D100% (#129) F
Sack ratesacks per dropback8% (#102) D6% (#52) C
Yards per carry4.0 (#97) D3.5 (#24) B

Delaware line vs Coastal Carolina front

Delaware DCoastal Carolina C
MetricDelawareCoastal Carolina allows
Line yards per carryyards the line is credited with on every run3.03 (#60) C2.87 (#58) C
Stuff rateruns stopped at or behind the line21% (#87) C14% (#97) D
Power success3rd/4th and 2 or less, converted on the ground50% (#107) D75% (#70) C
Sack ratesacks per dropback14% (#133) F7% (#46) B
Yards per carry5.2 (#30) B5.0 (#91) D

Receivers vs the secondary

Each passing game against the pass defense across from it, plus the receivers’ last games.

Coastal Carolina passing vs Delaware secondary

Coastal Carolina CDelaware B
MetricCoastal CarolinaDelaware allows
Yards per pass play8.4 (#36) B7.0 (#70) C
Completion %56% (#107) D55% (#21) A
Explosive pass ratepasses of 16+ yards21% (#29) B15% (#71) C
Passing yards per game326 (#16) A230 (#79) C
Sack ratepressure the front gets home8% (#102) D6% (#52) C
  • Colton Hinton: 77 yds/game on 3.0 catches over the last 2 games, 2 TD (53, 101)
  • Clayton Coppock: 55 yds/game on 3.0 catches over the last 2 games, 3 TD (83, 26)
  • Robby Washington: 52 yds/game on 2.0 catches over the last 2 games, 1 TD (80, 23)

Delaware passing vs Coastal Carolina secondary

Delaware DCoastal Carolina D
MetricDelawareCoastal Carolina allows
Yards per pass play6.0 (#92) D8.4 (#105) D
Completion %45% (#133) F79% (#127) F
Explosive pass ratepasses of 16+ yards14% (#71) C20% (#113) D
Passing yards per game215 (#67) C126 (#13) A
Sack ratepressure the front gets home14% (#133) F7% (#46) B
  • Da'Wain Lofton: 103 yds/game on 3.5 catches over the last 2 games, 1 TD (64, 142)
  • Kaderris Roberts: 61 yds/game on 2.0 catches over the last 2 games, 1 TD (80, 42)
  • Sean Wilson: 52 yds/game on 4.5 catches over the last 2 games, 1 TD (73, 30)

Coastal Carolina

Points per game
24.0
allows 31.0
last game
24 pts/game
allowing 31
Rushing
87 yds/game
allows 291
Passing
326 yds/game
allows 126

QB Deuce Bailey (288 pass yds/game, 6 TD, 0 INT) · RB Jevon Edwards (36 rush yds/game) · WR Robby Washington (52 rec yds/game)

Delaware

Points per game
26.0
allows 35.0
last game
26 pts/game
allowing 35
Rushing
152 yds/game
allows 118
Passing
215 yds/game
allows 230

QB Nick Minicucci (256 pass yds/game, 3 TD, 3 INT) · RB Jo'Nathan Silver (64 rush yds/game) · WR Kaderris Roberts (61 rec yds/game)