The Numbers Desk
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Houston
2-0 · ATS 1-1 · O/U 2-0
at
Texas Tech
2-0 · ATS 0-2 · O/U 1-1

College football Week 3 · Fri, Sep 18, 8:00 PM ET

The number

Vegas
Texas Tech -7.5
Our line
Texas Tech -7.6
Raw model
Texas Tech -7.8
Houston 22.9 · Texas Tech 30.7
no edge

Edge: spread 0.1 pts · total - · model weight 20%

Why

  1. 1.Our number makes it Texas Tech by 7.6; Vegas has Texas Tech by 7.5. That is a 0.1-point edge which is not enough to act on.
  2. 2.Power ratings: Texas Tech #70, Houston #47 of 137 on opponent-adjusted efficiency; SP+ anchors the early-season number.
  3. 3.Houston's pass game (321 passing yds/game, 19th in FBS) meets a Texas Tech pass defense that ranks bottom five in FBS (134th of 137) (403 allowed).
  4. 4.Texas Tech's pass game (172 passing yds/game, 94th in FBS) meets a Houston pass defense that ranks 124th of 137 in FBS (337 allowed).
  5. 5.Against the spread this season: Texas Tech 0-2 (0%), Houston 1-1.
  6. 6.Trust level: 20% on our numbers and 80% on the market, with 1 game of data behind the thinner side. Ratings this early are pulled toward the league average.

The trenches

Offensive line against the defensive front. Grades are ours, from where each unit ranks on these numbers.

Houston line vs Texas Tech front

Houston BTexas Tech D
MetricHoustonTexas Tech allows
Line yards per carryyards the line is credited with on every run3.28 (#35) B2.89 (#60) C
Stuff rateruns stopped at or behind the line15% (#49) C12% (#114) D
Power success3rd/4th and 2 or less, converted on the ground100% (#5) A100% (#132) F
Sack ratesacks per dropback3% (#44) B4% (#85) C
Yards per carry5.9 (#14) A4.0 (#45) B

Texas Tech line vs Houston front

Texas Tech CHouston C
MetricTexas TechHouston allows
Line yards per carryyards the line is credited with on every run3.00 (#65) C2.83 (#53) C
Stuff rateruns stopped at or behind the line13% (#27) B5% (#135) F
Power success3rd/4th and 2 or less, converted on the ground67% (#83) C0% (#2) A
Sack ratesacks per dropback13% (#131) F8% (#35) B
Yards per carry4.5 (#74) C3.1 (#11) A

Receivers vs the secondary

Each passing game against the pass defense across from it, plus the receivers’ last games.

Houston passing vs Texas Tech secondary

Houston BTexas Tech C
MetricHoustonTexas Tech allows
Yards per pass play10.0 (#18) A7.5 (#84) C
Completion %65% (#54) C62% (#61) C
Explosive pass ratepasses of 16+ yards28% (#4) A19% (#105) D
Passing yards per game321 (#19) A403 (#134) F
Sack ratepressure the front gets home3% (#44) B4% (#85) C
  • Amare Thomas: 81 yds/game on 5.5 catches over the last 2 games, 2 TD (133, 29)
  • Koby Young: 51 yds/game on 2.0 catches over the last 2 games, 2 TD (47, 54)
  • Patrick Overmyer: 50 yds/game on 4.0 catches over the last 2 games, 1 TD (84, 16)

Texas Tech passing vs Houston secondary

Texas Tech CHouston C
MetricTexas TechHouston allows
Yards per pass play5.4 (#105) D6.5 (#59) C
Completion %75% (#14) A60% (#51) C
Explosive pass ratepasses of 16+ yards9% (#109) D14% (#52) C
Passing yards per game172 (#94) D337 (#124) F
Sack ratepressure the front gets home13% (#131) F8% (#35) B
  • Kenny Johnson: 59 yds/game on 4.5 catches over the last 2 games (76, 41)
  • Coy Eakin: 46 yds/game on 4.0 catches over the last 2 games, 1 TD (13, 79)
  • J'Koby Williams: 37 yds/game on 5.0 catches over the last 2 games (57, 16)

Houston

Points per game
33.0
allows 20.0
last game
33 pts/game
allowing 20
Rushing
229 yds/game
allows 65
Passing
321 yds/game
allows 337

QB Conner Weigman (213 pass yds/game, 4 TD, 1 INT) · RB Makhi Hughes (71 rush yds/game) · WR Koby Young (51 rec yds/game)

Texas Tech

Points per game
35.0
allows 24.0
last game
35 pts/game
allowing 24
Rushing
178 yds/game
allows 68
Passing
172 yds/game
allows 403

QB Will Hammond (244 pass yds/game, 2 TD, 1 INT) · RB J'Koby Williams (94 rush yds/game) · WR J'Koby Williams (37 rec yds/game)