College football Week 3 · Fri, Sep 18, 7:30 PM ET
The number
- Vegas
- Miami -20.5
- total 56.5
- Our line
- Miami -20.1
- total 55.1
- Raw model
- Miami -18.4
- Miami 33.9 · Wake Forest 15.5
Edge: spread 0.4 pts · total 1.4 pts · model weight 20%
Why
- 1.Our number makes it Miami by 20.1; Vegas has Miami by 20.5. That is a 0.4-point edge which is not enough to act on.
- 2.Power ratings: Wake Forest #29, Miami #11 of 137 on opponent-adjusted efficiency; SP+ anchors the early-season number.
- 3.Miami's pass game (428 passing yds/game, 2nd in FBS) meets a Wake Forest pass defense that ranks 74th in FBS (226 allowed).
- 4.Wake Forest's pass game (286 passing yds/game, 32nd in FBS) meets a Miami pass defense that ranks 65th in FBS (216 allowed).
- 5.Against the spread this season: Wake Forest 0-2 (0%), Miami 2-0.
- 6.Trust level: 20% on our numbers and 80% on the market, with 1 game of data behind the thinner side. Ratings this early are pulled toward the league average.
The trenches
Offensive line against the defensive front. Grades are ours, from where each unit ranks on these numbers.
Miami line vs Wake Forest front
| Metric | Miami | Wake Forest allows |
|---|---|---|
| Line yards per carryyards the line is credited with on every run | 2.89 (#78) C | 3.00 (#65) C |
| Stuff rateruns stopped at or behind the line | 19% (#74) C | 22% (#33) B |
| Power success3rd/4th and 2 or less, converted on the ground | 100% (#4) A | 71% (#62) C |
| Sack ratesacks per dropback | 0% (#2) A | 6% (#50) C |
| Yards per carry | 3.8 (#106) D | 4.6 (#69) C |
Wake Forest line vs Miami front
| Metric | Wake Forest | Miami allows |
|---|---|---|
| Line yards per carryyards the line is credited with on every run | 3.35 (#26) B | 2.65 (#36) B |
| Stuff rateruns stopped at or behind the line | 12% (#22) B | 23% (#30) B |
| Power success3rd/4th and 2 or less, converted on the ground | 83% (#55) C | 100% (#98) D |
| Sack ratesacks per dropback | 3% (#43) B | 2% (#107) D |
| Yards per carry | 5.9 (#15) A | 3.8 (#30) B |
Receivers vs the secondary
Each passing game against the pass defense across from it, plus the receivers’ last games.
Miami passing vs Wake Forest secondary
| Metric | Miami | Wake Forest allows |
|---|---|---|
| Yards per pass play | 12.2 (#5) A | 5.6 (#35) B |
| Completion % | 86% (#4) A | 80% (#130) F |
| Explosive pass ratepasses of 16+ yards | 26% (#9) A | 7% (#14) A |
| Passing yards per game | 428 (#2) A | 226 (#74) C |
| Sack ratepressure the front gets home | 0% (#2) A | 6% (#50) C |
- Malachi Toney: 165 yds/game on 8.0 catches over the last 2 games, 4 TD (234, 96)
- Joshua Moore: 46 yds/game on 2.0 catches over the last 2 games, 1 TD (36, 55)
- Somourian Wingo: 43 yds/game on 2.0 catches over the last 2 games, 1 TD (27, 59)
Wake Forest passing vs Miami secondary
| Metric | Wake Forest | Miami allows |
|---|---|---|
| Yards per pass play | 8.9 (#28) B | 5.0 (#21) A |
| Completion % | 61% (#75) C | 52% (#16) A |
| Explosive pass ratepasses of 16+ yards | 22% (#23) B | 9% (#25) B |
| Passing yards per game | 286 (#32) B | 216 (#65) C |
| Sack ratepressure the front gets home | 3% (#43) B | 2% (#107) D |
- Carlos Hernandez: 127 yds/game on 5.5 catches over the last 2 games, 1 TD (165, 88)
- Antonio Meeks: 63 yds/game on 2.5 catches over the last 2 games, 1 TD (93, 32)
- Kameran Shanks: 47 yds/game on 4.0 catches over the last 2 games, 1 TD (55, 39)
Miami
- Points per game
- 45.0
- allows 6.0
- last game
- 45 pts/game
- allowing 6
- Rushing
- 121 yds/game
- allows 83
- Passing
- 428 yds/game
- allows 216
QB Darian Mensah (327 pass yds/game, 8 TD, 0 INT) · RB Javian Mallory (87 rush yds/game) · WR Girard Pringle Jr. (18 rec yds/game)
Wake Forest
- Points per game
- 38.0
- allows 26.0
- last 2 games
- 38 pts/game
- allowing 26
- Rushing
- 203 yds/game
- allows 156
- Passing
- 286 yds/game
- allows 226
QB Giovanni Lopez (288 pass yds/game, 4 TD, 0 INT) · RB Ty Clark III (71 rush yds/game) · WR Deuce Lawrence (5 rec yds/game)
Props to watch
All props →Ty Clark III has gone for 105 and 36 rushing yards over his last 2 games (71 a game, 7.4 a carry).
Miami allows 83 rushing yards a game, 14th in FBS against the run.
FanDuel: 30.5. Projection 37 (cleared it 2 of 2). No edge either way; the game script decides.
Carlos Hernandez has 165 and 88 receiving yards over his last 2 games (127 a game on 5.5 catches).
Miami allows 216 passing yards a game, 65th in FBS against the pass.
FanDuel: 63.5. Projection 82 (cleared it 2 of 2). The form says over.
Giovanni Lopez has thrown for 350 and 225 yards over his last 2 games (288 a game, 4 TD, 0 INT).
Miami allows 216 passing yards a game, 65th in FBS against the pass.
FanDuel: 215.5. Projection 236 (cleared it 2 of 2). The form says over.