The Numbers Desk
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Syracuse
1-1 · ATS 1-1 · O/U 1-1
at
Pittsburgh
2-0 · ATS 1-1 · O/U 1-1

College football Week 3 · Thu, Sep 17, 7:30 PM ET

The number

Vegas
Pittsburgh -10.5
total 51.5
Our line
Pittsburgh -10.8
total 49.6
Raw model
Pittsburgh -12.1
Syracuse 14.8 · Pittsburgh 27
no edge

Edge: spread 0.3 pts · total 1.9 pts · model weight 20%

Why

  1. 1.Our number makes it Pittsburgh by 10.8; Vegas has Pittsburgh by 10.5. That is a 0.3-point edge which is not enough to act on.
  2. 2.Power ratings: Pittsburgh #36, Syracuse #83 of 137 on opponent-adjusted efficiency; SP+ anchors the early-season number.
  3. 3.Pittsburgh's pass game (343 passing yds/game, 11th in FBS) meets a Syracuse pass defense that ranks 38th in FBS (173 allowed).
  4. 4.Syracuse's pass game (301 passing yds/game, 25th in FBS) meets a Pittsburgh pass defense that ranks 51st in FBS (202 allowed).
  5. 5.Against the spread this season: Pittsburgh 1-1 (50%), Syracuse 1-1.
  6. 6.Trust level: 20% on our numbers and 80% on the market, with 1 game of data behind the thinner side. Ratings this early are pulled toward the league average.

The trenches

Offensive line against the defensive front. Grades are ours, from where each unit ranks on these numbers.

Syracuse line vs Pittsburgh front

Syracuse CPittsburgh C
MetricSyracusePittsburgh allows
Line yards per carryyards the line is credited with on every run2.16 (#128) F2.20 (#10) A
Stuff rateruns stopped at or behind the line22% (#100) D19% (#56) C
Power success3rd/4th and 2 or less, converted on the ground100% (#35) B100% (#103) D
Sack ratesacks per dropback6% (#77) C6% (#57) C
Yards per carry4.1 (#92) D3.1 (#15) A

Pittsburgh line vs Syracuse front

Pittsburgh CSyracuse C
MetricPittsburghSyracuse allows
Line yards per carryyards the line is credited with on every run2.67 (#100) D2.24 (#11) A
Stuff rateruns stopped at or behind the line21% (#93) D32% (#8) A
Power success3rd/4th and 2 or less, converted on the ground44% (#111) D100% (#125) F
Sack ratesacks per dropback3% (#38) B3% (#97) D
Yards per carry4.0 (#96) D3.0 (#9) A

Receivers vs the secondary

Each passing game against the pass defense across from it, plus the receivers’ last games.

Syracuse passing vs Pittsburgh secondary

Syracuse DPittsburgh B
MetricSyracusePittsburgh allows
Yards per pass play5.9 (#94) D5.6 (#33) B
Completion %48% (#128) F57% (#37) B
Explosive pass ratepasses of 16+ yards18% (#46) B11% (#37) B
Passing yards per game301 (#25) B202 (#51) C
Sack ratepressure the front gets home6% (#77) C6% (#57) C
  • Umari Hatcher: 112 yds/game on 7.0 catches over the last 2 games, 2 TD (147, 77)
  • Daunte Bacheyie: 43 yds/game on 3.0 catches over the last 2 games, 2 TD (12, 73)
  • Darien Williams: 13 yds/game on 2.0 catches over the last 2 games (-3, 28)

Pittsburgh passing vs Syracuse secondary

Pittsburgh BSyracuse B
MetricPittsburghSyracuse allows
Yards per pass play9.1 (#26) B4.9 (#19) A
Completion %71% (#25) B62% (#63) C
Explosive pass ratepasses of 16+ yards17% (#48) B6% (#10) A
Passing yards per game343 (#11) A173 (#38) B
Sack ratepressure the front gets home3% (#38) B3% (#97) D
  • Cataurus Hicks: 89 yds/game on 4.0 catches over the last 2 games, 1 TD (114, 64)
  • Censere Lee: 52 yds/game on 3.5 catches over the last 2 games, 1 TD (86, 18)
  • Bryce Yates: 40 yds/game on 3.0 catches over the last 2 games, 1 TD (53, 27)

Syracuse

Points per game
18.0
allows 21.0
last game
18 pts/game
allowing 21
Rushing
130 yds/game
allows 76
Passing
301 yds/game
allows 173

QB Steven Angeli (285 pass yds/game, 4 TD, 3 INT) · RB Tylik Hill (73 rush yds/game) · WR Umari Hatcher (112 rec yds/game)

Pittsburgh

Points per game
35.5
allows 10.5
last 2 games
36 pts/game
allowing 11
Rushing
139 yds/game
allows 57
Passing
343 yds/game
allows 202

QB Mason Heintschel (333 pass yds/game, 7 TD, 0 INT) · RB Damon Ferguson Jr. (41 rush yds/game) · WR Ja'Kyrian Turner (35 rec yds/game)