NFL Week 2 · Mon, Sep 21, 8:15 PM ET
The number
- Vegas
- LA -7
- total 47.5
- Our line
- LA -6.8
- total 49.7
- Raw model
- LA -5.9
- NYG 26.4 · LA 32.3
Edge: spread 0.2 pts · total 2.2 pts · model weight 20%
Why
- 1.Our number makes it LA by 6.8; Vegas has LA by 7. That is a 0.2-point edge which is not enough to act on.
- 2.Power ratings: LA #29, NYG #13 of 32 on opponent-adjusted efficiency; last season's ratings anchor the early-season number.
- 3.NYG's run game (160 rushing yds/game, 5th in the NFL) meets a LA run defense that ranks 27th of 32 in the NFL (148 allowed).
- 4.NYG's pass game (239 passing yds/game, 10th in the NFL) meets a LA pass defense that ranks 21st in the NFL (231 allowed).
- 5.Totals: we project 49.7 points (35 combined scoring average) against a 47.5 total, so the over.
- 6.Against the spread this season: LA 0-1 (0%), NYG 1-0.
- 7.Rest: LA has 3 extra days.
- 8.Trust level: 20% on our numbers and 80% on the market, with 1 game of data behind the thinner side. Ratings this early are pulled toward the league average.
The trenches
Offensive line against the defensive front. Grades are ours, from where each unit ranks on these numbers.
NYG line vs LA front
| Metric | NYG | LA allows |
|---|---|---|
| Line yards per carryyards the line is credited with on every run | 3.45 (#3) A | 3.84 (#32) F |
| Stuff rateruns stopped at or behind the line | 9% (#3) A | 7% (#31) F |
| Power success3rd/4th and 2 or less, converted on the ground | 67% (#14) C | 100% (#24) D |
| Sack ratesacks per dropback | 6% (#17) C | 0% (#28) F |
| Yards per carry | 4.8 (#6) B | 5.3 (#30) F |
LA line vs NYG front
| Metric | LA | NYG allows |
|---|---|---|
| Line yards per carryyards the line is credited with on every run | 3.39 (#6) B | 2.82 (#14) C |
| Stuff rateruns stopped at or behind the line | 15% (#6) B | 24% (#13) C |
| Power success3rd/4th and 2 or less, converted on the ground | 67% (#12) C | 50% (#18) C |
| Sack ratesacks per dropback | 0% (#1) A | 0% (#32) F |
| Yards per carry | 4.2 (#11) B | 3.2 (#4) A |
Receivers vs the secondary
Each passing game against the pass defense across from it, plus the receivers’ last games.
NYG passing vs LA secondary
| Metric | NYG | LA allows |
|---|---|---|
| Yards per pass play | 7.2 (#8) B | 6.2 (#19) C |
| Completion % | 74% (#2) A | 68% (#28) F |
| Explosive pass ratepasses of 16+ yards | 15% (#8) B | 5% (#5) A |
| Passing yards per game | 239 (#10) B | 231 (#21) C |
| Sack ratepressure the front gets home | 6% (#17) C | 0% (#28) F |
- Isaiah Likely: 78 yds/game on 8.0 catches over the last game, 2 TD (78)
- Malik Nabers: 69 yds/game on 6.0 catches over the last game (69)
- Darnell Mooney: 27 yds/game on 2.0 catches over the last game (27)
LA passing vs NYG secondary
| Metric | LA | NYG allows |
|---|---|---|
| Yards per pass play | 5.4 (#21) C | 4.6 (#7) B |
| Completion % | 52% (#23) D | 54% (#13) C |
| Explosive pass ratepasses of 16+ yards | 9% (#21) C | 5% (#4) A |
| Passing yards per game | 177 (#26) D | 189 (#8) B |
| Sack ratepressure the front gets home | 0% (#1) A | 0% (#32) F |
- Puka Nacua: 74 yds/game on 5.0 catches over the last game (74)
- Davante Adams: 26 yds/game on 3.0 catches over the last game (26)
- Kyren Williams: 24 yds/game on 3.0 catches over the last game (24)
NYG
- Points per game
- 28.0
- allows 20.0
- last game
- 28 pts/game
- allowing 20
- Rushing
- 160 yds/game
- allows 55
- Passing
- 239 yds/game
- allows 189
QB Jaxson Dart (230 pass yds/game, 3 TD, 0 INT) · RB Cam Skattebo (81 rush yds/game) · WR Isaiah Likely (78 rec yds/game)
LA
- Points per game
- 7.0
- allows 27.0
- last game
- 7 pts/game
- allowing 27
- Rushing
- 114 yds/game
- allows 148
- Passing
- 177 yds/game
- allows 231
QB Matthew Stafford (155 pass yds/game, 0 TD, 1 INT) · RB Blake Corum (54 rush yds/game) · WR Puka Nacua (74 rec yds/game)
Props to watch
All props →Cam Skattebo went for 81 rushing yards on 18 carries in Week 1 (4.5 a carry).
LA allows 148 rushing yards a game, 27th of 32 in the NFL against the run.
FanDuel: 49.5. Projection 59. Form and matchup both say over.
Blake Corum went for 54 rushing yards on 10 carries in Week 1 (5.4 a carry).
NYG allows 55 rushing yards a game, 4th in the NFL against the run.
FanDuel: 43.5. Projection 43. No edge either way; the game script decides.
Kyren Williams went for 41 rushing yards on 11 carries in Week 1 (3.7 a carry).
NYG allows 55 rushing yards a game, 4th in the NFL against the run.
FanDuel: 61.5. Projection 55. No edge either way; the game script decides.