The Numbers Desk
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IND
0-1 · ATS 0-1 · O/U 1-0
at
KC
1-0 · ATS 1-0 · O/U 0-1

NFL Week 2 · Sun, Sep 20, 8:20 PM ET

The number

Vegas
KC -6.5
total 46.5
Our line
KC -6
total 47.1
Raw model
KC -4.1
IND 22.8 · KC 26.8
no edge

Edge: spread 0.5 pts · total 0.6 pts · model weight 20%

Why

  1. 1.Our number makes it KC by 6.0; Vegas has KC by 6.5. That is a 0.5-point edge which is not enough to act on.
  2. 2.Power ratings: KC #3, IND #31 of 32 on opponent-adjusted efficiency; last season's ratings anchor the early-season number.
  3. 3.KC's run game (197 rushing yds/game, 2nd in the NFL) meets a IND run defense that ranks bottom five in the NFL (30th of 32) (167 allowed).
  4. 4.KC's pass game (199 passing yds/game, 23rd in the NFL) meets a IND pass defense that ranks bottom five in the NFL (28th of 32) (342 allowed).
  5. 5.Against the spread this season: KC 1-0 (100%), IND 0-1.
  6. 6.Trust level: 20% on our numbers and 80% on the market, with 1 game of data behind the thinner side. Ratings this early are pulled toward the league average.

The trenches

Offensive line against the defensive front. Grades are ours, from where each unit ranks on these numbers.

IND line vs KC front

IND CKC C
MetricINDKC allows
Line yards per carryyards the line is credited with on every run3.01 (#14) C3.03 (#20) C
Stuff rateruns stopped at or behind the line26% (#25) D20% (#16) C
Power success3rd/4th and 2 or less, converted on the ground0% (#25) D100% (#32) F
Sack ratesacks per dropback6% (#15) C11% (#4) A
Yards per carry5.2 (#5) A3.9 (#16) C

KC line vs IND front

KC BIND D
MetricKCIND allows
Line yards per carryyards the line is credited with on every run3.19 (#9) B3.44 (#29) F
Stuff rateruns stopped at or behind the line13% (#5) A9% (#29) F
Power success3rd/4th and 2 or less, converted on the ground100% (#9) B0% (#7) B
Sack ratesacks per dropback6% (#16) C6% (#15) C
Yards per carry6.2 (#2) A5.2 (#29) F

Receivers vs the secondary

Each passing game against the pass defense across from it, plus the receivers’ last games.

IND passing vs KC secondary

IND DKC B
MetricINDKC allows
Yards per pass play4.4 (#28) F3.4 (#1) A
Completion %58% (#15) C55% (#14) C
Explosive pass ratepasses of 16+ yards6% (#27) D3% (#2) A
Passing yards per game153 (#28) F118 (#2) A
Sack ratepressure the front gets home6% (#15) C11% (#4) A
  • Alec Pierce: 61 yds/game on 4.0 catches over the last game (61)
  • Josh Downs: 37 yds/game on 2.0 catches over the last game (37)
  • Keenan Allen: 32 yds/game on 6.0 catches over the last game (32)

KC passing vs IND secondary

KC DIND D
MetricKCIND allows
Yards per pass play5.9 (#16) C10.7 (#32) F
Completion %47% (#29) F57% (#17) C
Explosive pass ratepasses of 16+ yards9% (#23) D28% (#32) F
Passing yards per game199 (#23) D342 (#28) F
Sack ratepressure the front gets home6% (#16) C6% (#15) C
  • Travis Kelce: 71 yds/game on 3.0 catches over the last game (71)
  • Emmett Johnson: 44 yds/game on 2.0 catches over the last game (44)
  • Rashee Rice: 19 yds/game on 2.0 catches over the last game, 1 TD (19)

IND

Points per game
23.0
allows 41.0
last game
23 pts/game
allowing 41
Rushing
98 yds/game
allows 167
Passing
153 yds/game
allows 342

QB Daniel Jones (166 pass yds/game, 1 TD, 1 INT) · RB Jonathan Taylor (98 rush yds/game) · WR Alec Pierce (61 rec yds/game)

KC

Points per game
31.0
allows 10.0
last game
31 pts/game
allowing 10
Rushing
197 yds/game
allows 59
Passing
199 yds/game
allows 118

QB Patrick Mahomes (184 pass yds/game, 2 TD, 1 INT) · RB Kenneth Walker III (173 rush yds/game) · WR Travis Kelce (71 rec yds/game)

Props to watch

All props →

  • Jonathan Taylor went for 98 rushing yards on 19 carries in Week 1 (5.2 a carry).

    KC allows 59 rushing yards a game, 6th in the NFL against the run.

    FanDuel: 87.5. Projection 85. No edge either way; the game script decides.

  • Kenneth Walker III went for 173 rushing yards on 23 carries in Week 1 (7.5 a carry).

    IND allows 167 rushing yards a game, bottom five in the NFL (30th of 32) against the run.

    FanDuel: 77.5. Projection 106. Form and matchup both say over.

  • Travis Kelce had 71 receiving yards on 3 catches in Week 1.

    IND allows 342 passing yards a game, bottom five in the NFL (28th of 32) against the pass.

    FanDuel: 42.5. Projection 51. Form and matchup both say over.