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MIA
0-1 · ATS 0-1 · O/U 0-1
SF
1-0 · ATS 1-0 · O/U 0-1
NFL Week 2 · Sun, Sep 20, 4:25 PM ET
The number
- Vegas
- SF -13.5
- total 44.5
- Our line
- SF -12.7
- total 46.1
- Raw model
- SF -9.3
- MIA 21.5 · SF 30.8
no edge
Edge: spread 0.8 pts · total 1.6 pts · model weight 20%
Why
- 1.Our number makes it SF by 12.7; Vegas has SF by 13.5. That is a 0.8-point edge which is not enough to act on.
- 2.Power ratings: SF #4, MIA #24 of 32 on opponent-adjusted efficiency; last season's ratings anchor the early-season number.
- 3.SF's run game (148 rushing yds/game, 6th in the NFL) meets a MIA run defense that ranks 25th in the NFL (133 allowed).
- 4.Against the spread this season: SF 1-0 (100%), MIA 0-1.
- 5.Rest: SF has 3 extra days.
- 6.Trust level: 20% on our numbers and 80% on the market, with 1 game of data behind the thinner side. Ratings this early are pulled toward the league average.
The trenches
Offensive line against the defensive front. Grades are ours, from where each unit ranks on these numbers.
MIA line vs SF front
MIA FSF D
| Metric | MIA | SF allows |
|---|---|---|
| Line yards per carryyards the line is credited with on every run | 1.91 (#31) F | 3.39 (#27) D |
| Stuff rateruns stopped at or behind the line | 40% (#32) F | 15% (#27) D |
| Power success3rd/4th and 2 or less, converted on the ground | 0% (#31) F | 67% (#19) C |
| Sack ratesacks per dropback | 13% (#30) F | 0% (#29) F |
| Yards per carry | 2.3 (#32) F | 4.2 (#22) D |
SF line vs MIA front
SF AMIA C
| Metric | SF | MIA allows |
|---|---|---|
| Line yards per carryyards the line is credited with on every run | 3.84 (#1) A | 2.70 (#10) B |
| Stuff rateruns stopped at or behind the line | 7% (#2) A | 27% (#5) A |
| Power success3rd/4th and 2 or less, converted on the ground | 100% (#1) A | 100% (#28) F |
| Sack ratesacks per dropback | 0% (#2) A | 0% (#31) F |
| Yards per carry | 5.3 (#3) A | 4.0 (#19) C |
Receivers vs the secondary
Each passing game against the pass defense across from it, plus the receivers’ last games.
MIA passing vs SF secondary
MIA DSF B
| Metric | MIA | SF allows |
|---|---|---|
| Yards per pass play | 5.6 (#19) C | 5.4 (#12) C |
| Completion % | 43% (#32) F | 52% (#10) B |
| Explosive pass ratepasses of 16+ yards | 13% (#15) C | 9% (#11) B |
| Passing yards per game | 224 (#16) C | 177 (#7) B |
| Sack ratepressure the front gets home | 13% (#30) F | 0% (#29) F |
- Caleb Douglas: 94 yds/game on 5.0 catches over the last game (94)
- Malik Washington: 53 yds/game on 3.0 catches over the last game (53)
- De'Von Achane: 30 yds/game on 4.0 catches over the last game (30)
SF passing vs MIA secondary
SF CMIA B
| Metric | SF | MIA allows |
|---|---|---|
| Yards per pass play | 6.2 (#14) C | 5.1 (#11) B |
| Completion % | 68% (#4) A | 66% (#25) D |
| Explosive pass ratepasses of 16+ yards | 5% (#28) F | 3% (#3) A |
| Passing yards per game | 231 (#12) C | 163 (#6) B |
| Sack ratepressure the front gets home | 0% (#2) A | 0% (#31) F |
- Demarcus Robinson: 50 yds/game on 2.0 catches over the last game, 1 TD (50)
- Mike Evans: 49 yds/game on 6.0 catches over the last game, 1 TD (49)
- Deebo Samuel Sr.: 48 yds/game on 6.0 catches over the last game, 1 TD (48)
MIA
- Points per game
- 13.0
- allows 27.0
- last game
- 13 pts/game
- allowing 27
- Rushing
- 35 yds/game
- allows 133
- Passing
- 224 yds/game
- allows 163
QB Malik Willis (220 pass yds/game, 0 TD, 1 INT) · RB De'Von Achane (36 rush yds/game) · WR Caleb Douglas (94 rec yds/game)
SF
- Points per game
- 27.0
- allows 7.0
- last game
- 27 pts/game
- allowing 7
- Rushing
- 148 yds/game
- allows 114
- Passing
- 231 yds/game
- allows 177
QB Brock Purdy (205 pass yds/game, 3 TD, 1 INT) · RB Christian McCaffrey (68 rush yds/game) · WR Demarcus Robinson (50 rec yds/game)