NFL Week 2 · Sun, Sep 20, 4:25 PM ET
The number
- Vegas
- DAL -4.5
- total 50.5
- Our line
- DAL -3.8
- total 53.7
- Raw model
- DAL -1.2
- WAS 32.7 · DAL 33.8
Edge: spread 0.7 pts · total 3.2 pts · model weight 20%
Why
- 1.Our number makes it DAL by 3.8; Vegas has DAL by 4.5. That is a 0.7-point edge which is not enough to act on.
- 2.Power ratings: DAL #20, WAS #16 of 32 on opponent-adjusted efficiency; last season's ratings anchor the early-season number.
- 3.WAS's run game (103 rushing yds/game, 14th in the NFL) meets a DAL run defense that ranks bottom five in the NFL (28th of 32) (160 allowed).
- 4.Totals: we project 53.7 points (42 combined scoring average) against a 50.5 total, so the over.
- 5.Against the spread this season: DAL 0-1 (0%), WAS 1-0.
- 6.Injuries to weigh: DAL: S M. Hooker (doubtful).
- 7.Trust level: 20% on our numbers and 80% on the market, with 1 game of data behind the thinner side. Ratings this early are pulled toward the league average.
The trenches
Offensive line against the defensive front. Grades are ours, from where each unit ranks on these numbers.
WAS line vs DAL front
| Metric | WAS | DAL allows |
|---|---|---|
| Line yards per carryyards the line is credited with on every run | 3.00 (#15) C | 3.45 (#30) F |
| Stuff rateruns stopped at or behind the line | 17% (#11) B | 9% (#30) F |
| Power success3rd/4th and 2 or less, converted on the ground | 67% (#13) C | 67% (#21) C |
| Sack ratesacks per dropback | 3% (#8) B | 6% (#16) C |
| Yards per carry | 3.6 (#22) D | 4.8 (#27) D |
DAL line vs WAS front
| Metric | DAL | WAS allows |
|---|---|---|
| Line yards per carryyards the line is credited with on every run | 2.82 (#19) C | 2.43 (#5) A |
| Stuff rateruns stopped at or behind the line | 24% (#20) C | 26% (#8) B |
| Power success3rd/4th and 2 or less, converted on the ground | 50% (#17) C | 100% (#30) F |
| Sack ratesacks per dropback | 0% (#5) A | 9% (#7) B |
| Yards per carry | 3.2 (#29) F | 4.7 (#26) D |
Receivers vs the secondary
Each passing game against the pass defense across from it, plus the receivers’ last games.
WAS passing vs DAL secondary
| Metric | WAS | DAL allows |
|---|---|---|
| Yards per pass play | 4.8 (#25) D | 7.2 (#25) D |
| Completion % | 46% (#30) F | 74% (#31) F |
| Explosive pass ratepasses of 16+ yards | 8% (#24) D | 15% (#25) D |
| Passing yards per game | 192 (#24) D | 239 (#23) D |
| Sack ratepressure the front gets home | 3% (#8) B | 6% (#16) C |
- Antonio Williams: 64 yds/game on 4.0 catches over the last game, 1 TD (64)
- Stefon Diggs: 55 yds/game on 4.0 catches over the last game, 1 TD (55)
- Chig Okonkwo: 16 yds/game on 2.0 catches over the last game (16)
DAL passing vs WAS secondary
| Metric | DAL | WAS allows |
|---|---|---|
| Yards per pass play | 4.6 (#26) D | 6.8 (#22) D |
| Completion % | 54% (#20) C | 45% (#2) A |
| Explosive pass ratepasses of 16+ yards | 5% (#29) F | 15% (#23) D |
| Passing yards per game | 189 (#25) D | 230 (#20) C |
| Sack ratepressure the front gets home | 0% (#5) A | 9% (#7) B |
- CeeDee Lamb: 44 yds/game on 5.0 catches over the last game, 1 TD (44)
- Javonte Williams: 31 yds/game on 5.0 catches over the last game, 1 TD (31)
- George Pickens: 28 yds/game on 3.0 catches over the last game (28)
WAS
- Points per game
- 22.0
- allows 24.0
- last game
- 22 pts/game
- allowing 24
- Rushing
- 103 yds/game
- allows 90
- Passing
- 192 yds/game
- allows 230
QB Jayden Daniels (164 pass yds/game, 2 TD, 0 INT) · RB Jacory Croskey-Merritt (63 rush yds/game) · WR Antonio Williams (64 rec yds/game)
DAL
- Points per game
- 20.0
- allows 28.0
- last game
- 20 pts/game
- allowing 28
- Rushing
- 55 yds/game
- allows 160
- Passing
- 189 yds/game
- allows 239
QB Dak Prescott (175 pass yds/game, 2 TD, 1 INT) · RB Javonte Williams (41 rush yds/game) · WR CeeDee Lamb (44 rec yds/game)
Injuries: S M. Hooker (doubtful)
Props to watch
All props →Jacory Croskey-Merritt went for 63 rushing yards on 16 carries in Week 1 (3.9 a carry).
DAL allows 160 rushing yards a game, bottom five in the NFL (28th of 32) against the run.
FanDuel: 56.5. Projection 61. No edge either way; the game script decides.
Javonte Williams went for 41 rushing yards on 12 carries in Week 1 (3.4 a carry).
WAS allows 90 rushing yards a game, 14th in the NFL against the run.
FanDuel: 72.5. Projection 66. No edge either way; the game script decides.
Stefon Diggs had 55 receiving yards on 4 catches in Week 1.
DAL allows 239 passing yards a game, 23rd in the NFL against the pass.
FanDuel: 44.5. Projection 47. No edge either way; the game script decides.