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at
SEA
1-0 · ATS 0-0-1 · O/U 0-1
ARI
1-0 · ATS 1-0 · O/U 0-1
NFL Week 2 · Sun, Sep 20, 4:25 PM ET
The number
- Vegas
- SEA -3.5
- total 41.5
- Our line
- SEA -3.7
- total 42.5
- Raw model
- SEA -4.5
- SEA 25.6 · ARI 21.1
no edge
Edge: spread 0.2 pts · total 1.0 pts · model weight 20%
Why
- 1.Our number makes it SEA by 3.7; Vegas has SEA by 3.5. That is a 0.2-point edge which is not enough to act on.
- 2.Power ratings: ARI #5, SEA #11 of 32 on opponent-adjusted efficiency; last season's ratings anchor the early-season number.
- 3.ARI's pass game (288 passing yds/game, 7th in the NFL) meets a SEA pass defense that ranks 15th in the NFL (212 allowed).
- 4.Against the spread this season: ARI 1-0 (100%), SEA 0-0-1.
- 5.Rest: SEA has 4 extra days.
- 6.Injuries to weigh: SEA: QB S. Darnold (out).
- 7.Trust level: 20% on our numbers and 80% on the market, with 1 game of data behind the thinner side. Ratings this early are pulled toward the league average.
The trenches
Offensive line against the defensive front. Grades are ours, from where each unit ranks on these numbers.
SEA line vs ARI front
SEA CARI B
| Metric | SEA | ARI allows |
|---|---|---|
| Line yards per carryyards the line is credited with on every run | 3.14 (#11) B | 2.27 (#4) A |
| Stuff rateruns stopped at or behind the line | 19% (#15) C | 25% (#11) B |
| Power success3rd/4th and 2 or less, converted on the ground | 0% (#19) C | 0% (#12) C |
| Sack ratesacks per dropback | 7% (#21) C | 8% (#10) B |
| Yards per carry | 4.0 (#16) C | 3.3 (#5) A |
ARI line vs SEA front
ARI BSEA A
| Metric | ARI | SEA allows |
|---|---|---|
| Line yards per carryyards the line is credited with on every run | 2.89 (#18) C | 1.86 (#1) A |
| Stuff rateruns stopped at or behind the line | 17% (#10) B | 33% (#2) A |
| Power success3rd/4th and 2 or less, converted on the ground | 100% (#4) A | 0% (#1) A |
| Sack ratesacks per dropback | 2% (#6) B | 7% (#13) C |
| Yards per carry | 3.6 (#20) C | 2.4 (#2) A |
Receivers vs the secondary
Each passing game against the pass defense across from it, plus the receivers’ last games.
SEA passing vs ARI secondary
SEA BARI B
| Metric | SEA | ARI allows |
|---|---|---|
| Yards per pass play | 7.2 (#9) B | 5.5 (#13) C |
| Completion % | 65% (#9) B | 47% (#5) A |
| Explosive pass ratepasses of 16+ yards | 11% (#16) C | 10% (#15) C |
| Passing yards per game | 202 (#22) D | 216 (#16) C |
| Sack ratepressure the front gets home | 7% (#21) C | 8% (#10) B |
- Jaxon Smith-Njigba: 122 yds/game on 8.0 catches over the last game, 1 TD (122)
- Cooper Kupp: 35 yds/game on 2.0 catches over the last game (35)
- Brady Russell: 20 yds/game on 2.0 catches over the last game (20)
ARI passing vs SEA secondary
ARI BSEA B
| Metric | ARI | SEA allows |
|---|---|---|
| Yards per pass play | 6.9 (#10) B | 4.8 (#9) B |
| Completion % | 66% (#6) B | 56% (#16) C |
| Explosive pass ratepasses of 16+ yards | 10% (#20) C | 7% (#7) B |
| Passing yards per game | 288 (#7) B | 212 (#15) C |
| Sack ratepressure the front gets home | 2% (#6) B | 7% (#13) C |
- Trey McBride: 95 yds/game on 9.0 catches over the last game, 1 TD (95)
- Kendrick Bourne: 75 yds/game on 8.0 catches over the last game (75)
- Michael Wilson: 56 yds/game on 5.0 catches over the last game (56)
SEA
- Points per game
- 13.0
- allows 10.0
- last game
- 13 pts/game
- allowing 10
- Rushing
- 84 yds/game
- allows 65
- Passing
- 202 yds/game
- allows 212
QB Drew Lock (187 pass yds/game, 1 TD, 0 INT) · RB Jadarian Price (52 rush yds/game) · WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba (122 rec yds/game)
Injuries: QB S. Darnold (out)
ARI
- Points per game
- 26.0
- allows 14.0
- last game
- 26 pts/game
- allowing 14
- Rushing
- 108 yds/game
- allows 52
- Passing
- 288 yds/game
- allows 216
QB Jacoby Brissett (277 pass yds/game, 1 TD, 0 INT) · RB Tyler Allgeier (61 rush yds/game) · WR Trey McBride (95 rec yds/game)