NFL Week 2 · Sun, Sep 20, 4:05 PM ET
The number
- Vegas
- LAC -6.5
- total 43.5
- Our line
- LAC -6.1
- total 42.7
- Raw model
- LAC -4.6
- LV 17.6 · LAC 22.2
Edge: spread 0.4 pts · total 0.8 pts · model weight 20%
Why
- 1.Our number makes it LAC by 6.1; Vegas has LAC by 6.5. That is a 0.4-point edge which is not enough to act on.
- 2.Power ratings: LAC #28, LV #9 of 32 on opponent-adjusted efficiency; last season's ratings anchor the early-season number.
- 3.LV's run game (133 rushing yds/game, 8th in the NFL) meets a LAC run defense that ranks 20th in the NFL (108 allowed).
- 4.Against the spread this season: LAC 0-1 (0%), LV 1-0.
- 5.Trust level: 20% on our numbers and 80% on the market, with 1 game of data behind the thinner side. Ratings this early are pulled toward the league average.
The trenches
Offensive line against the defensive front. Grades are ours, from where each unit ranks on these numbers.
LV line vs LAC front
| Metric | LV | LAC allows |
|---|---|---|
| Line yards per carryyards the line is credited with on every run | 2.70 (#23) D | 2.89 (#15) C |
| Stuff rateruns stopped at or behind the line | 27% (#27) D | 17% (#23) D |
| Power success3rd/4th and 2 or less, converted on the ground | 100% (#5) A | 100% (#27) D |
| Sack ratesacks per dropback | 0% (#4) A | 2% (#27) D |
| Yards per carry | 4.0 (#14) C | 3.6 (#13) C |
LAC line vs LV front
| Metric | LAC | LV allows |
|---|---|---|
| Line yards per carryyards the line is credited with on every run | 2.27 (#29) F | 1.91 (#2) A |
| Stuff rateruns stopped at or behind the line | 25% (#23) D | 40% (#1) A |
| Power success3rd/4th and 2 or less, converted on the ground | 0% (#30) F | 0% (#13) C |
| Sack ratesacks per dropback | 8% (#24) D | 13% (#3) A |
| Yards per carry | 3.3 (#28) F | 2.3 (#1) A |
Receivers vs the secondary
Each passing game against the pass defense across from it, plus the receivers’ last games.
LV passing vs LAC secondary
| Metric | LV | LAC allows |
|---|---|---|
| Yards per pass play | 5.1 (#22) D | 6.9 (#23) D |
| Completion % | 66% (#8) B | 66% (#27) D |
| Explosive pass ratepasses of 16+ yards | 3% (#30) F | 10% (#13) C |
| Passing yards per game | 163 (#27) D | 288 (#26) D |
| Sack ratepressure the front gets home | 0% (#4) A | 2% (#27) D |
- Ashton Jeanty: 45 yds/game on 6.0 catches over the last game, 2 TD (45)
- Michael Mayer: 32 yds/game on 6.0 catches over the last game (32)
- Tre Tucker: 27 yds/game on 2.0 catches over the last game (27)
LAC passing vs LV secondary
| Metric | LAC | LV allows |
|---|---|---|
| Yards per pass play | 5.5 (#20) C | 5.6 (#14) C |
| Completion % | 47% (#28) F | 43% (#1) A |
| Explosive pass ratepasses of 16+ yards | 10% (#19) C | 13% (#19) C |
| Passing yards per game | 216 (#17) C | 224 (#18) C |
| Sack ratepressure the front gets home | 8% (#24) D | 13% (#3) A |
- Ladd McConkey: 82 yds/game on 5.0 catches over the last game, 1 TD (82)
- David Njoku: 58 yds/game on 5.0 catches over the last game (58)
- Oronde Gadsden II: 32 yds/game on 2.0 catches over the last game (32)
LV
- Points per game
- 27.0
- allows 13.0
- last game
- 27 pts/game
- allowing 13
- Rushing
- 133 yds/game
- allows 35
- Passing
- 163 yds/game
- allows 224
QB Kirk Cousins (160 pass yds/game, 3 TD, 2 INT) · RB Ashton Jeanty (102 rush yds/game) · WR Michael Mayer (32 rec yds/game)
LAC
- Points per game
- 14.0
- allows 26.0
- last game
- 14 pts/game
- allowing 26
- Rushing
- 52 yds/game
- allows 108
- Passing
- 216 yds/game
- allows 288
QB Justin Herbert (209 pass yds/game, 1 TD, 1 INT) · RB Omarion Hampton (43 rush yds/game) · WR Ladd McConkey (82 rec yds/game)
Props to watch
All props →Omarion Hampton went for 43 rushing yards on 12 carries in Week 1 (3.6 a carry).
LV allows 35 rushing yards a game, best in the NFL against the run.
FanDuel: 65.5. Projection 58. No edge either way; the game script decides.
Ashton Jeanty had 45 receiving yards on 6 catches in Week 1.
LAC allows 288 passing yards a game, 26th of 32 in the NFL against the pass.
FanDuel: 28.5. Projection 33. No edge either way; the game script decides.
Ashton Jeanty went for 102 rushing yards on 23 carries in Week 1 (4.4 a carry).
LAC allows 108 rushing yards a game, 20th in the NFL against the run.
FanDuel: 65.5. Projection 73. No edge either way; the game script decides.