NFL Week 2 · Sun, Sep 20, 4:05 PM ET
The number
- Vegas
- DEN -2.5
- total 45.5
- Our line
- DEN -1.4
- total 45.1
- Raw model
- JAX -2.8
- JAX 23.2 · DEN 20.3
Edge: spread 1.1 pts · total 0.4 pts · model weight 20%
Why
- 1.Our number makes it DEN by 1.4; Vegas has DEN by 2.5. That is a 1.1-point edge which is not enough to act on.
- 2.Power ratings: DEN #30, JAX #1 of 32 on opponent-adjusted efficiency; last season's ratings anchor the early-season number.
- 3.JAX's run game (127 rushing yds/game, 9th in the NFL) meets a DEN run defense that ranks bottom five in the NFL (31st of 32) (197 allowed).
- 4.Against the spread this season: DEN 0-1 (0%), JAX 1-0.
- 5.Trust level: 20% on our numbers and 80% on the market, with 1 game of data behind the thinner side. Ratings this early are pulled toward the league average.
The trenches
Offensive line against the defensive front. Grades are ours, from where each unit ranks on these numbers.
JAX line vs DEN front
| Metric | JAX | DEN allows |
|---|---|---|
| Line yards per carryyards the line is credited with on every run | 3.22 (#8) B | 3.19 (#24) D |
| Stuff rateruns stopped at or behind the line | 24% (#21) C | 13% (#28) F |
| Power success3rd/4th and 2 or less, converted on the ground | 75% (#10) B | 100% (#31) F |
| Sack ratesacks per dropback | 4% (#10) B | 6% (#17) C |
| Yards per carry | 4.4 (#10) B | 6.2 (#31) F |
DEN line vs JAX front
| Metric | DEN | JAX allows |
|---|---|---|
| Line yards per carryyards the line is credited with on every run | 3.03 (#13) C | 2.98 (#17) C |
| Stuff rateruns stopped at or behind the line | 20% (#18) C | 16% (#26) D |
| Power success3rd/4th and 2 or less, converted on the ground | 100% (#8) B | 0% (#8) B |
| Sack ratesacks per dropback | 11% (#29) F | 16% (#1) A |
| Yards per carry | 3.9 (#17) C | 3.5 (#10) B |
Receivers vs the secondary
Each passing game against the pass defense across from it, plus the receivers’ last games.
JAX passing vs DEN secondary
| Metric | JAX | DEN allows |
|---|---|---|
| Yards per pass play | 9.4 (#3) A | 5.9 (#17) C |
| Completion % | 75% (#1) A | 47% (#4) A |
| Explosive pass ratepasses of 16+ yards | 24% (#3) A | 9% (#10) B |
| Passing yards per game | 236 (#11) B | 199 (#10) B |
| Sack ratepressure the front gets home | 4% (#10) B | 6% (#17) C |
- Parker Washington: 83 yds/game on 5.0 catches over the last game, 1 TD (83)
- Brian Thomas Jr.: 40 yds/game on 3.0 catches over the last game (40)
- Jakobi Meyers: 40 yds/game on 2.0 catches over the last game, 1 TD (40)
DEN passing vs JAX secondary
| Metric | DEN | JAX allows |
|---|---|---|
| Yards per pass play | 3.4 (#32) F | 6.4 (#20) C |
| Completion % | 55% (#19) C | 59% (#22) D |
| Explosive pass ratepasses of 16+ yards | 3% (#31) F | 13% (#18) C |
| Passing yards per game | 118 (#32) F | 205 (#12) C |
| Sack ratepressure the front gets home | 11% (#29) F | 16% (#1) A |
- Evan Engram: 43 yds/game on 4.0 catches over the last game, 1 TD (43)
- Pat Bryant: 42 yds/game on 4.0 catches over the last game (42)
- RJ Harvey: 23 yds/game on 4.0 catches over the last game (23)
JAX
- Points per game
- 34.0
- allows 10.0
- last game
- 34 pts/game
- allowing 10
- Rushing
- 127 yds/game
- allows 67
- Passing
- 236 yds/game
- allows 205
QB Trevor Lawrence (245 pass yds/game, 4 TD, 0 INT) · RB Bhayshul Tuten (66 rush yds/game) · WR Parker Washington (83 rec yds/game)
DEN
- Points per game
- 10.0
- allows 31.0
- last game
- 10 pts/game
- allowing 31
- Rushing
- 59 yds/game
- allows 197
- Passing
- 118 yds/game
- allows 199
QB Bo Nix (131 pass yds/game, 1 TD, 1 INT) · RB J.K. Dobbins (36 rush yds/game) · WR Evan Engram (43 rec yds/game)
Props to watch
All props →Bhayshul Tuten went for 66 rushing yards on 15 carries in Week 1 (4.4 a carry).
DEN allows 197 rushing yards a game, bottom five in the NFL (31st of 32) against the run.
FanDuel: 51.5. Projection 58. No edge either way; the game script decides.
Parker Washington had 83 receiving yards on 5 catches in Week 1.
DEN allows 199 passing yards a game, 10th in the NFL against the pass.
FanDuel: 49.5. Projection 55. No edge either way; the game script decides.
Trevor Lawrence threw for 245 yards in Week 1 (4 TD, 0 INT).
DEN allows 199 passing yards a game, 10th in the NFL against the pass.
FanDuel: 220.5. Projection 222. No edge either way; the game script decides.