The Numbers Desk
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PHI
1-0 · ATS 0-1 · O/U 1-0
at
TEN
0-1 · ATS 0-1 · O/U 0-1

NFL Week 2 · Sun, Sep 20, 1:00 PM ET

The number

Vegas
PHI -7
total 39.5
Our line
PHI -7.4
total 41
Raw model
PHI -8.8
PHI 27.9 · TEN 19.2
no edge

Edge: spread 0.4 pts · total 1.5 pts · model weight 20%

Why

  1. 1.Our number makes it PHI by 7.4; Vegas has PHI by 7. That is a 0.4-point edge which is not enough to act on.
  2. 2.Power ratings: TEN #27, PHI #17 of 32 on opponent-adjusted efficiency; last season's ratings anchor the early-season number.
  3. 3.PHI's run game (90 rushing yds/game, 19th in the NFL) meets a TEN run defense that ranks 26th of 32 in the NFL (145 allowed).
  4. 4.PHI's pass game (230 passing yds/game, 13th in the NFL) meets a TEN pass defense that ranks 19th in the NFL (225 allowed).
  5. 5.Against the spread this season: TEN 0-1 (0%), PHI 0-1.
  6. 6.Trust level: 20% on our numbers and 80% on the market, with 1 game of data behind the thinner side. Ratings this early are pulled toward the league average.

The trenches

Offensive line against the defensive front. Grades are ours, from where each unit ranks on these numbers.

PHI line vs TEN front

PHI DTEN D
MetricPHITEN allows
Line yards per carryyards the line is credited with on every run2.43 (#28) F3.30 (#26) D
Stuff rateruns stopped at or behind the line26% (#26) D19% (#17) C
Power success3rd/4th and 2 or less, converted on the ground100% (#7) B50% (#17) C
Sack ratesacks per dropback9% (#26) D0% (#30) F
Yards per carry4.7 (#7) B4.0 (#18) C

TEN line vs PHI front

TEN CPHI C
MetricTENPHI allows
Line yards per carryyards the line is credited with on every run3.60 (#2) A3.00 (#18) C
Stuff rateruns stopped at or behind the line0% (#1) A17% (#22) D
Power success3rd/4th and 2 or less, converted on the ground0% (#29) F67% (#20) C
Sack ratesacks per dropback8% (#22) D3% (#25) D
Yards per carry4.7 (#8) B3.6 (#11) B

Receivers vs the secondary

Each passing game against the pass defense across from it, plus the receivers’ last games.

PHI passing vs TEN secondary

PHI CTEN F
MetricPHITEN allows
Yards per pass play6.8 (#11) B8.0 (#28) F
Completion %45% (#31) F68% (#30) F
Explosive pass ratepasses of 16+ yards15% (#10) B18% (#27) D
Passing yards per game230 (#13) C225 (#19) C
Sack ratepressure the front gets home9% (#26) D0% (#30) F
  • Dallas Goedert: 77 yds/game on 4.0 catches over the last game, 2 TD (77)
  • Dontayvion Wicks: 73 yds/game on 2.0 catches over the last game, 1 TD (73)
  • DeVonta Smith: 53 yds/game on 3.0 catches over the last game (53)

TEN passing vs PHI secondary

TEN FPHI B
MetricTENPHI allows
Yards per pass play3.7 (#31) F4.8 (#8) B
Completion %51% (#24) D46% (#3) A
Explosive pass ratepasses of 16+ yards0% (#32) F8% (#9) B
Passing yards per game148 (#29) F192 (#9) B
Sack ratepressure the front gets home8% (#22) D3% (#25) D
  • Carnell Tate: 38 yds/game on 4.0 catches over the last game (38)
  • Wan'Dale Robinson: 38 yds/game on 5.0 catches over the last game (38)
  • Gunnar Helm: 28 yds/game on 4.0 catches over the last game (28)

PHI

Points per game
24.0
allows 22.0
last game
24 pts/game
allowing 22
Rushing
90 yds/game
allows 103
Passing
230 yds/game
allows 192

QB Jalen Hurts (203 pass yds/game, 3 TD, 0 INT) · RB Saquon Barkley (83 rush yds/game) · WR Dallas Goedert (77 rec yds/game)

TEN

Points per game
10.0
allows 23.0
last game
10 pts/game
allowing 23
Rushing
47 yds/game
allows 145
Passing
148 yds/game
allows 225

QB Cam Ward (140 pass yds/game, 1 TD, 0 INT) · RB Tony Pollard (35 rush yds/game) · WR Wan'Dale Robinson (38 rec yds/game)

Props to watch

All props →

  • Jalen Hurts threw for 203 yards in Week 1 (3 TD, 0 INT).

    TEN allows 225 passing yards a game, 19th in the NFL against the pass.

    FanDuel: 206.5. Projection 205. No edge either way; the game script decides.