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at
CLE
0-1 · ATS 0-1 · O/U 1-0
TB
0-1 · ATS 0-1 · O/U 1-0
NFL Week 2 · Sun, Sep 20, 1:00 PM ET
The number
- Vegas
- TB -8.5
- total 41.5
- Our line
- TB -8.5
- total 41
- Raw model
- TB -8.4
- CLE 15.3 · TB 23.6
no edge
Edge: spread 0.0 pts · total 0.5 pts · model weight 20%
Why
- 1.Our number makes it TB by 8.5; Vegas has TB by 8.5. That is a 0.0-point edge which is not enough to act on.
- 2.Power ratings: TB #19, CLE #32 of 32 on opponent-adjusted efficiency; last season's ratings anchor the early-season number.
- 3.TB's pass game (224 passing yds/game, 15th in the NFL) meets a CLE pass defense that ranks 22nd in the NFL (236 allowed).
- 4.Against the spread this season: TB 0-1 (0%), CLE 0-1.
- 5.Injuries to weigh: CLE: QB D. Gabriel (out).
- 6.Trust level: 20% on our numbers and 80% on the market, with 1 game of data behind the thinner side. Ratings this early are pulled toward the league average.
The trenches
Offensive line against the defensive front. Grades are ours, from where each unit ranks on these numbers.
CLE line vs TB front
CLE CTB D
| Metric | CLE | TB allows |
|---|---|---|
| Line yards per carryyards the line is credited with on every run | 2.98 (#16) C | 3.07 (#21) C |
| Stuff rateruns stopped at or behind the line | 16% (#8) B | 16% (#24) D |
| Power success3rd/4th and 2 or less, converted on the ground | 0% (#26) D | 100% (#25) D |
| Sack ratesacks per dropback | 16% (#32) F | 3% (#24) D |
| Yards per carry | 3.5 (#23) D | 4.0 (#20) C |
TB line vs CLE front
TB DCLE D
| Metric | TB | CLE allows |
|---|---|---|
| Line yards per carryyards the line is credited with on every run | 2.72 (#22) D | 3.22 (#25) D |
| Stuff rateruns stopped at or behind the line | 29% (#30) F | 24% (#12) C |
| Power success3rd/4th and 2 or less, converted on the ground | 0% (#22) D | 75% (#23) D |
| Sack ratesacks per dropback | 10% (#28) F | 4% (#23) D |
| Yards per carry | 3.5 (#26) D | 4.4 (#23) D |
Receivers vs the secondary
Each passing game against the pass defense across from it, plus the receivers’ last games.
CLE passing vs TB secondary
CLE CTB D
| Metric | CLE | TB allows |
|---|---|---|
| Yards per pass play | 6.4 (#13) C | 6.6 (#21) C |
| Completion % | 59% (#11) B | 68% (#29) F |
| Explosive pass ratepasses of 16+ yards | 13% (#14) C | 18% (#28) F |
| Passing yards per game | 205 (#21) C | 251 (#24) D |
| Sack ratepressure the front gets home | 16% (#32) F | 3% (#24) D |
- Denzel Boston: 59 yds/game on 2.0 catches over the last game, 1 TD (59)
- KC Concepcion: 43 yds/game on 4.0 catches over the last game (43)
- Jerry Jeudy: 26 yds/game on 2.0 catches over the last game (26)
TB passing vs CLE secondary
TB CCLE F
| Metric | TB | CLE allows |
|---|---|---|
| Yards per pass play | 5.7 (#17) C | 9.4 (#30) F |
| Completion % | 66% (#7) B | 75% (#32) F |
| Explosive pass ratepasses of 16+ yards | 10% (#18) C | 24% (#30) F |
| Passing yards per game | 224 (#15) C | 236 (#22) D |
| Sack ratepressure the front gets home | 10% (#28) F | 4% (#23) D |
- Emeka Egbuka: 63 yds/game on 5.0 catches over the last game (63)
- Bucky Irving: 48 yds/game on 7.0 catches over the last game (48)
- Chris Godwin Jr.: 40 yds/game on 4.0 catches over the last game (40)
CLE
- Points per game
- 10.0
- allows 34.0
- last game
- 10 pts/game
- allowing 34
- Rushing
- 67 yds/game
- allows 127
- Passing
- 205 yds/game
- allows 236
QB Deshaun Watson (205 pass yds/game, 1 TD, 1 INT) · RB Quinshon Judkins (33 rush yds/game) · WR Denzel Boston (59 rec yds/game)
Injuries: QB D. Gabriel (out)
TB
- Points per game
- 27.0
- allows 33.0
- last game
- 27 pts/game
- allowing 33
- Rushing
- 59 yds/game
- allows 101
- Passing
- 224 yds/game
- allows 251
QB Baker Mayfield (216 pass yds/game, 0 TD, 0 INT) · RB Bucky Irving (45 rush yds/game) · WR Emeka Egbuka (63 rec yds/game)