← All matchups
at
GB
0-1 · ATS 0-1 · O/U 1-0
NYJ
1-0 · ATS 1-0 · O/U 0-1
NFL Week 2 · Sun, Sep 20, 1:00 PM ET
The number
- Vegas
- GB -3.5
- total 44.5
- Our line
- GB -3.9
- total 45.8
- Raw model
- GB -5.3
- GB 28 · NYJ 22.7
no edge
Edge: spread 0.4 pts · total 1.3 pts · model weight 20%
Why
- 1.Our number makes it GB by 3.9; Vegas has GB by 3.5. That is a 0.4-point edge which is not enough to act on.
- 2.Power ratings: NYJ #6, GB #26 of 32 on opponent-adjusted efficiency; last season's ratings anchor the early-season number.
- 3.NYJ's run game (145 rushing yds/game, 7th in the NFL) meets a GB run defense that ranks 17th in the NFL (100 allowed).
- 4.Against the spread this season: NYJ 1-0 (100%), GB 0-1.
- 5.Injuries to weigh: NYJ: S M. Fitzpatrick (doubtful).
- 6.Trust level: 20% on our numbers and 80% on the market, with 1 game of data behind the thinner side. Ratings this early are pulled toward the league average.
The trenches
Offensive line against the defensive front. Grades are ours, from where each unit ranks on these numbers.
GB line vs NYJ front
GB FNYJ C
| Metric | GB | NYJ allows |
|---|---|---|
| Line yards per carryyards the line is credited with on every run | 2.23 (#30) F | 3.60 (#31) F |
| Stuff rateruns stopped at or behind the line | 27% (#28) F | 0% (#32) F |
| Power success3rd/4th and 2 or less, converted on the ground | 0% (#32) F | 0% (#11) B |
| Sack ratesacks per dropback | 9% (#25) D | 8% (#11) B |
| Yards per carry | 3.0 (#30) F | 4.7 (#25) D |
NYJ line vs GB front
NYJ BGB C
| Metric | NYJ | GB allows |
|---|---|---|
| Line yards per carryyards the line is credited with on every run | 3.30 (#7) B | 2.54 (#7) B |
| Stuff rateruns stopped at or behind the line | 19% (#16) C | 18% (#20) C |
| Power success3rd/4th and 2 or less, converted on the ground | 50% (#16) C | 100% (#29) F |
| Sack ratesacks per dropback | 0% (#3) A | 9% (#6) B |
| Yards per carry | 4.0 (#15) C | 3.6 (#12) C |
Receivers vs the secondary
Each passing game against the pass defense across from it, plus the receivers’ last games.
GB passing vs NYJ secondary
GB CNYJ A
| Metric | GB | NYJ allows |
|---|---|---|
| Yards per pass play | 7.7 (#7) B | 3.7 (#2) A |
| Completion % | 50% (#26) D | 51% (#9) B |
| Explosive pass ratepasses of 16+ yards | 17% (#7) B | 0% (#1) A |
| Passing yards per game | 353 (#3) A | 148 (#4) A |
| Sack ratepressure the front gets home | 9% (#25) D | 8% (#11) B |
- Christian Watson: 147 yds/game on 6.0 catches over the last game, 2 TD (147)
- Matthew Golden: 95 yds/game on 6.0 catches over the last game (95)
- Tucker Kraft: 65 yds/game on 3.0 catches over the last game (65)
NYJ passing vs GB secondary
NYJ AGB B
| Metric | NYJ | GB allows |
|---|---|---|
| Yards per pass play | 8.0 (#5) A | 4.3 (#4) A |
| Completion % | 68% (#3) A | 50% (#7) B |
| Explosive pass ratepasses of 16+ yards | 18% (#6) B | 9% (#12) C |
| Passing yards per game | 225 (#14) C | 142 (#3) A |
| Sack ratepressure the front gets home | 0% (#3) A | 9% (#6) B |
- Garrett Wilson: 79 yds/game on 6.0 catches over the last game (79)
- Adonai Mitchell: 60 yds/game on 3.0 catches over the last game (60)
- Kenyon Sadiq: 21 yds/game on 3.0 catches over the last game (21)
GB
- Points per game
- 22.0
- allows 39.0
- last game
- 22 pts/game
- allowing 39
- Rushing
- 66 yds/game
- allows 100
- Passing
- 353 yds/game
- allows 142
QB Jordan Love (387 pass yds/game, 2 TD, 1 INT) · RB MarShawn Lloyd (37 rush yds/game) · WR Christian Watson (147 rec yds/game)
NYJ
- Points per game
- 23.0
- allows 10.0
- last game
- 23 pts/game
- allowing 10
- Rushing
- 145 yds/game
- allows 47
- Passing
- 225 yds/game
- allows 148
QB Geno Smith (215 pass yds/game, 0 TD, 0 INT) · RB Breece Hall (102 rush yds/game) · WR Garrett Wilson (79 rec yds/game)
Injuries: S M. Fitzpatrick (doubtful)