The Numbers Desk
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PIT
1-0 · ATS 1-0 · O/U 0-1
at
NE
0-1 · ATS 0-0-1 · O/U 0-1

NFL Week 2 · Sun, Sep 20, 1:00 PM ET

The number

Vegas
NE -5.5
total 41.5
Our line
NE -5
total 42.7
Raw model
NE -2.9
PIT 22.2 · NE 25.1
no edge

Edge: spread 0.5 pts · total 1.2 pts · model weight 20%

Why

  1. 1.Our number makes it NE by 5.0; Vegas has NE by 5.5. That is a 0.5-point edge which is not enough to act on.
  2. 2.Power ratings: NE #22, PIT #12 of 32 on opponent-adjusted efficiency; last season's ratings anchor the early-season number.
  3. 3.Against the spread this season: NE 0-0-1 (0%), PIT 1-0.
  4. 4.Rest: NE has 4 extra days.
  5. 5.Trust level: 20% on our numbers and 80% on the market, with 1 game of data behind the thinner side. Ratings this early are pulled toward the league average.

The trenches

Offensive line against the defensive front. Grades are ours, from where each unit ranks on these numbers.

PIT line vs NE front

PIT DNE C
MetricPITNE allows
Line yards per carryyards the line is credited with on every run2.47 (#27) D3.14 (#22) D
Stuff rateruns stopped at or behind the line28% (#29) F19% (#18) C
Power success3rd/4th and 2 or less, converted on the ground0% (#28) F0% (#2) A
Sack ratesacks per dropback4% (#11) B7% (#12) C
Yards per carry3.4 (#27) D4.0 (#17) C

NE line vs PIT front

NE DPIT B
MetricNEPIT allows
Line yards per carryyards the line is credited with on every run1.86 (#32) F2.58 (#8) B
Stuff rateruns stopped at or behind the line33% (#31) F25% (#10) B
Power success3rd/4th and 2 or less, converted on the ground0% (#20) C0% (#10) B
Sack ratesacks per dropback7% (#20) C14% (#2) A
Yards per carry2.4 (#31) F3.8 (#14) C

Receivers vs the secondary

Each passing game against the pass defense across from it, plus the receivers’ last games.

PIT passing vs NE secondary

PIT CNE D
MetricPITNE allows
Yards per pass play4.4 (#27) D7.2 (#24) D
Completion %53% (#21) C65% (#24) D
Explosive pass ratepasses of 16+ yards11% (#17) C11% (#17) C
Passing yards per game206 (#20) C202 (#11) B
Sack ratepressure the front gets home4% (#11) B7% (#12) C
  • Michael Pittman: 58 yds/game on 3.0 catches over the last game (58)
  • Pat Freiermuth: 46 yds/game on 5.0 catches over the last game, 1 TD (46)
  • DK Metcalf: 40 yds/game on 4.0 catches over the last game (40)

NE passing vs PIT secondary

NE DPIT B
MetricNEPIT allows
Yards per pass play4.8 (#24) D4.2 (#3) A
Completion %56% (#17) C50% (#6) B
Explosive pass ratepasses of 16+ yards7% (#26) D14% (#21) C
Passing yards per game212 (#18) C118 (#1) A
Sack ratepressure the front gets home7% (#20) C14% (#2) A
  • Mack Hollins: 51 yds/game on 4.0 catches over the last game (51)
  • Rhamondre Stevenson: 44 yds/game on 5.0 catches over the last game (44)
  • A.J. Brown: 26 yds/game on 3.0 catches over the last game (26)

PIT

Points per game
20.0
allows 13.0
last game
20 pts/game
allowing 13
Rushing
61 yds/game
allows 120
Passing
206 yds/game
allows 118

QB Aaron Rodgers (221 pass yds/game, 1 TD, 0 INT) · RB Jaylen Warren (46 rush yds/game) · WR Michael Pittman (58 rec yds/game)

NE

Points per game
10.0
allows 13.0
last game
10 pts/game
allowing 13
Rushing
65 yds/game
allows 84
Passing
212 yds/game
allows 202

QB Drake Maye (178 pass yds/game, 1 TD, 3 INT) · RB Rhamondre Stevenson (51 rush yds/game) · WR Mack Hollins (51 rec yds/game)

Props to watch

All props →

  • Aaron Rodgers threw for 221 yards in Week 1 (1 TD, 0 INT).

    NE allows 202 passing yards a game, 11th in the NFL against the pass.

    FanDuel: 206.5. Projection 207. No edge either way; the game script decides.