NFL Week 2 · Sun, Sep 20, 1:00 PM ET
The number
- Vegas
- HOU -2.5
- total 46.5
- Our line
- HOU -2.9
- total 47.5
- Raw model
- HOU -4.4
- CIN 23.6 · HOU 28.1
Edge: spread 0.4 pts · total 1.0 pts · model weight 20%
Why
- 1.Our number makes it HOU by 2.9; Vegas has HOU by 2.5. That is a 0.4-point edge which is not enough to act on.
- 2.Power ratings: HOU #25, CIN #14 of 32 on opponent-adjusted efficiency; last season's ratings anchor the early-season number.
- 3.CIN's pass game (251 passing yds/game, 9th in the NFL) meets a HOU pass defense that ranks bottom five in the NFL (29th of 32) (344 allowed).
- 4.HOU's pass game (272 passing yds/game, 8th in the NFL) meets a CIN pass defense that ranks 17th in the NFL (224 allowed).
- 5.Against the spread this season: HOU 0-1 (0%), CIN 1-0.
- 6.Injuries to weigh: CIN: QB J. Burrow (questionable); HOU: LB J. Hummel (doubtful).
- 7.Trust level: 20% on our numbers and 80% on the market, with 1 game of data behind the thinner side. Ratings this early are pulled toward the league average.
The trenches
Offensive line against the defensive front. Grades are ours, from where each unit ranks on these numbers.
CIN line vs HOU front
| Metric | CIN | HOU allows |
|---|---|---|
| Line yards per carryyards the line is credited with on every run | 3.07 (#12) C | 2.76 (#13) C |
| Stuff rateruns stopped at or behind the line | 16% (#9) B | 16% (#25) D |
| Power success3rd/4th and 2 or less, converted on the ground | 100% (#2) A | 0% (#5) A |
| Sack ratesacks per dropback | 3% (#9) B | 6% (#19) C |
| Yards per carry | 4.0 (#13) C | 3.5 (#8) B |
HOU line vs CIN front
| Metric | HOU | CIN allows |
|---|---|---|
| Line yards per carryyards the line is credited with on every run | 2.62 (#24) D | 2.72 (#11) B |
| Stuff rateruns stopped at or behind the line | 26% (#24) D | 29% (#3) A |
| Power success3rd/4th and 2 or less, converted on the ground | 71% (#11) B | 0% (#4) A |
| Sack ratesacks per dropback | 6% (#18) C | 10% (#5) A |
| Yards per carry | 3.5 (#24) D | 3.5 (#7) B |
Receivers vs the secondary
Each passing game against the pass defense across from it, plus the receivers’ last games.
CIN passing vs HOU secondary
| Metric | CIN | HOU allows |
|---|---|---|
| Yards per pass play | 6.6 (#12) C | 9.6 (#31) F |
| Completion % | 68% (#5) A | 59% (#21) C |
| Explosive pass ratepasses of 16+ yards | 18% (#5) A | 28% (#31) F |
| Passing yards per game | 251 (#9) B | 344 (#29) F |
| Sack ratepressure the front gets home | 3% (#9) B | 6% (#19) C |
- Mike Gesicki: 78 yds/game on 5.0 catches over the last game, 1 TD (78)
- Tee Higgins: 59 yds/game on 3.0 catches over the last game (59)
- Samaje Perine: 30 yds/game on 3.0 catches over the last game (30)
HOU passing vs CIN secondary
| Metric | HOU | CIN allows |
|---|---|---|
| Yards per pass play | 5.7 (#18) C | 5.7 (#16) C |
| Completion % | 58% (#14) C | 66% (#26) D |
| Explosive pass ratepasses of 16+ yards | 15% (#11) B | 10% (#14) C |
| Passing yards per game | 272 (#8) B | 224 (#17) C |
| Sack ratepressure the front gets home | 6% (#18) C | 10% (#5) A |
- Nico Collins: 75 yds/game on 7.0 catches over the last game, 1 TD (75)
- Jaylin Noel: 53 yds/game on 2.0 catches over the last game (53)
- Dalton Schultz: 35 yds/game on 4.0 catches over the last game (35)
CIN
- Points per game
- 33.0
- allows 27.0
- last game
- 33 pts/game
- allowing 27
- Rushing
- 101 yds/game
- allows 59
- Passing
- 251 yds/game
- allows 224
QB Joe Burrow (254 pass yds/game, 1 TD, 1 INT) · RB Chase Brown (56 rush yds/game) · WR Mike Gesicki (78 rec yds/game)
Injuries: QB J. Burrow (questionable)
HOU
- Points per game
- 31.0
- allows 36.0
- last game
- 31 pts/game
- allowing 36
- Rushing
- 109 yds/game
- allows 66
- Passing
- 272 yds/game
- allows 344
QB C.J. Stroud (274 pass yds/game, 2 TD, 0 INT) · RB David Montgomery (60 rush yds/game) · WR Nico Collins (75 rec yds/game)
Injuries: LB J. Hummel (doubtful)
Props to watch
All props →Joe Burrow threw for 254 yards in Week 1 (1 TD, 1 INT).
HOU allows 344 passing yards a game, bottom five in the NFL (29th of 32) against the pass.
FanDuel: 247.5. Projection 260. No edge either way; the game script decides.
C.J. Stroud threw for 274 yards in Week 1 (2 TD, 0 INT).
CIN allows 224 passing yards a game, 17th in the NFL against the pass.
FanDuel: 240.5. Projection 246. No edge either way; the game script decides.