NFL Week 2 · Sun, Sep 20, 1:00 PM ET
The number
- Vegas
- CHI -4.5
- total 48.5
- Our line
- CHI -4
- total 48.5
- Raw model
- CHI -2.1
- MIN 23.3 · CHI 25.4
Edge: spread 0.5 pts · total 0.0 pts · model weight 20%
Why
- 1.Our number makes it CHI by 4.0; Vegas has CHI by 4.5. That is a 0.5-point edge which is not enough to act on.
- 2.Power ratings: CHI #10, MIN #7 of 32 on opponent-adjusted efficiency; last season's ratings anchor the early-season number.
- 3.CHI's pass game (320 passing yds/game, 6th in the NFL) meets a MIN pass defense that ranks bottom five in the NFL (30th of 32) (353 allowed).
- 4.CHI's run game (232 rushing yds/game, best in the NFL) meets a MIN run defense that ranks 10th in the NFL (66 allowed).
- 5.Against the spread this season: CHI 1-0 (100%), MIN 1-0.
- 6.Injuries to weigh: MIN: QB K. Murray (questionable).
- 7.Trust level: 20% on our numbers and 80% on the market, with 1 game of data behind the thinner side. Ratings this early are pulled toward the league average.
The trenches
Offensive line against the defensive front. Grades are ours, from where each unit ranks on these numbers.
MIN line vs CHI front
| Metric | MIN | CHI allows |
|---|---|---|
| Line yards per carryyards the line is credited with on every run | 2.54 (#26) D | 3.43 (#28) F |
| Stuff rateruns stopped at or behind the line | 18% (#13) C | 18% (#19) C |
| Power success3rd/4th and 2 or less, converted on the ground | 100% (#6) B | 0% (#3) A |
| Sack ratesacks per dropback | 9% (#27) D | 4% (#21) C |
| Yards per carry | 3.6 (#21) C | 4.1 (#21) C |
CHI line vs MIN front
| Metric | CHI | MIN allows |
|---|---|---|
| Line yards per carryyards the line is credited with on every run | 3.18 (#10) B | 2.23 (#3) A |
| Stuff rateruns stopped at or behind the line | 20% (#17) C | 27% (#6) B |
| Power success3rd/4th and 2 or less, converted on the ground | 33% (#18) C | 0% (#14) C |
| Sack ratesacks per dropback | 5% (#13) C | 9% (#8) B |
| Yards per carry | 6.6 (#1) A | 3.0 (#3) A |
Receivers vs the secondary
Each passing game against the pass defense across from it, plus the receivers’ last games.
MIN passing vs CHI secondary
| Metric | MIN | CHI allows |
|---|---|---|
| Yards per pass play | 4.3 (#29) F | 8.4 (#29) F |
| Completion % | 50% (#27) D | 52% (#11) B |
| Explosive pass ratepasses of 16+ yards | 9% (#22) D | 20% (#29) F |
| Passing yards per game | 142 (#30) F | 387 (#32) F |
| Sack ratepressure the front gets home | 9% (#27) D | 4% (#21) C |
- Justin Jefferson: 92 yds/game on 8.0 catches over the last game, 2 TD (92)
- T.J. Hockenson: 36 yds/game on 4.0 catches over the last game, 1 TD (36)
- Josh Oliver: 22 yds/game on 2.0 catches over the last game (22)
CHI passing vs MIN secondary
| Metric | CHI | MIN allows |
|---|---|---|
| Yards per pass play | 8.0 (#6) B | 7.7 (#26) D |
| Completion % | 55% (#18) C | 50% (#8) B |
| Explosive pass ratepasses of 16+ yards | 15% (#9) B | 17% (#26) D |
| Passing yards per game | 320 (#6) B | 353 (#30) F |
| Sack ratepressure the front gets home | 5% (#13) C | 9% (#8) B |
- Kalif Raymond: 84 yds/game on 8.0 catches over the last game (84)
- Luther Burden III: 63 yds/game on 5.0 catches over the last game (63)
- Rome Odunze: 52 yds/game on 2.0 catches over the last game (52)
MIN
- Points per game
- 39.0
- allows 22.0
- last game
- 39 pts/game
- allowing 22
- Rushing
- 100 yds/game
- allows 66
- Passing
- 142 yds/game
- allows 353
RB Jordan Mason (59 rush yds/game) · WR Justin Jefferson (92 rec yds/game)
Injuries: QB K. Murray (questionable)
CHI
- Points per game
- 59.0
- allows 37.0
- last game
- 59 pts/game
- allowing 37
- Rushing
- 232 yds/game
- allows 91
- Passing
- 320 yds/game
- allows 387
QB Caleb Williams (269 pass yds/game, 2 TD, 0 INT) · RB D'Andre Swift (124 rush yds/game) · WR Kalif Raymond (84 rec yds/game)
Props to watch
All props →Justin Jefferson had 92 receiving yards on 8 catches in Week 1.
CHI allows 387 passing yards a game, dead last in the NFL against the pass.
FanDuel: 71.5. Projection 80. Form and matchup both say over.
D'Andre Swift went for 124 rushing yards on 18 carries in Week 1 (6.9 a carry).
MIN allows 66 rushing yards a game, 10th in the NFL against the run.
FanDuel: 61.5. Projection 69. No edge either way; the game script decides.
Kyle Monangai went for 100 rushing yards on 10 carries in Week 1 (10.0 a carry).
MIN allows 66 rushing yards a game, 10th in the NFL against the run.
FanDuel: 38.5. Projection 47. The form says over.