NFL Week 2 · Sun, Sep 20, 1:00 PM ET
The number
- Vegas
- BAL -8.5
- total 46.5
- Our line
- BAL -8
- total 46.1
- Raw model
- BAL -6.1
- NO 19.2 · BAL 25.4
Edge: spread 0.5 pts · total 0.4 pts · model weight 20%
Why
- 1.Our number makes it BAL by 8.0; Vegas has BAL by 8.5. That is a 0.5-point edge which is not enough to act on.
- 2.Power ratings: BAL #2, NO #15 of 32 on opponent-adjusted efficiency; last season's ratings anchor the early-season number.
- 3.BAL's run game (167 rushing yds/game, 3rd in the NFL) meets a NO run defense that ranks bottom five in the NFL (29th of 32) (163 allowed).
- 4.BAL's pass game (342 passing yds/game, 5th in the NFL) meets a NO pass defense that ranks 13th in the NFL (206 allowed).
- 5.Against the spread this season: BAL 1-0 (100%), NO 1-0.
- 6.Injuries to weigh: NO: LS Z. Wood (out).
- 7.Trust level: 20% on our numbers and 80% on the market, with 1 game of data behind the thinner side. Ratings this early are pulled toward the league average.
The trenches
Offensive line against the defensive front. Grades are ours, from where each unit ranks on these numbers.
NO line vs BAL front
| Metric | NO | BAL allows |
|---|---|---|
| Line yards per carryyards the line is credited with on every run | 2.75 (#21) C | 3.01 (#19) C |
| Stuff rateruns stopped at or behind the line | 17% (#12) C | 26% (#7) B |
| Power success3rd/4th and 2 or less, converted on the ground | 100% (#3) A | 0% (#6) B |
| Sack ratesacks per dropback | 8% (#23) D | 6% (#18) C |
| Yards per carry | 3.8 (#18) C | 5.2 (#28) F |
BAL line vs NO front
| Metric | BAL | NO allows |
|---|---|---|
| Line yards per carryyards the line is credited with on every run | 3.44 (#4) A | 2.96 (#16) C |
| Stuff rateruns stopped at or behind the line | 9% (#4) A | 22% (#14) C |
| Power success3rd/4th and 2 or less, converted on the ground | 0% (#24) D | 50% (#16) C |
| Sack ratesacks per dropback | 6% (#19) C | 2% (#26) D |
| Yards per carry | 5.2 (#4) A | 4.5 (#24) D |
Receivers vs the secondary
Each passing game against the pass defense across from it, plus the receivers’ last games.
NO passing vs BAL secondary
| Metric | NO | BAL allows |
|---|---|---|
| Yards per pass play | 5.9 (#15) C | 4.4 (#5) A |
| Completion % | 58% (#13) C | 58% (#18) C |
| Explosive pass ratepasses of 16+ yards | 14% (#13) C | 6% (#6) B |
| Passing yards per game | 382 (#2) A | 153 (#5) A |
| Sack ratepressure the front gets home | 8% (#23) D | 6% (#18) C |
- Chris Olave: 182 yds/game on 10.0 catches over the last game (182)
- Devaughn Vele: 69 yds/game on 7.0 catches over the last game, 1 TD (69)
- Juwan Johnson: 54 yds/game on 3.0 catches over the last game, 1 TD (54)
BAL passing vs NO secondary
| Metric | BAL | NO allows |
|---|---|---|
| Yards per pass play | 10.7 (#1) A | 5.0 (#10) B |
| Completion % | 57% (#16) C | 65% (#23) D |
| Explosive pass ratepasses of 16+ yards | 28% (#1) A | 7% (#8) B |
| Passing yards per game | 342 (#5) A | 206 (#13) C |
| Sack ratepressure the front gets home | 6% (#19) C | 2% (#26) D |
- Zay Flowers: 150 yds/game on 5.0 catches over the last game, 1 TD (150)
- Mark Andrews: 49 yds/game on 4.0 catches over the last game (49)
- LaJohntay Wester: 15 yds/game on 2.0 catches over the last game (15)
NO
- Points per game
- 30.0
- allows 31.0
- last game
- 30 pts/game
- allowing 31
- Rushing
- 87 yds/game
- allows 163
- Passing
- 382 yds/game
- allows 206
QB Tyler Shough (410 pass yds/game, 3 TD, 2 INT) · RB Travis Etienne (46 rush yds/game) · WR Chris Olave (182 rec yds/game)
Injuries: LS Z. Wood (out)
BAL
- Points per game
- 41.0
- allows 23.0
- last game
- 41 pts/game
- allowing 23
- Rushing
- 167 yds/game
- allows 98
- Passing
- 342 yds/game
- allows 153
QB Lamar Jackson (324 pass yds/game, 1 TD, 0 INT) · RB Derrick Henry (144 rush yds/game) · WR Zay Flowers (150 rec yds/game)
Props to watch
All props →Derrick Henry went for 144 rushing yards on 24 carries in Week 1 (6.0 a carry).
NO allows 163 rushing yards a game, bottom five in the NFL (29th of 32) against the run.
FanDuel: 89.5. Projection 108. Form and matchup both say over.
Tyler Shough threw for 410 yards in Week 1 (3 TD, 2 INT).
BAL allows 153 passing yards a game, 5th in the NFL against the pass.
FanDuel: 240.5. Projection 259. The form says over.
Lamar Jackson threw for 324 yards in Week 1 (1 TD, 0 INT).
NO allows 206 passing yards a game, 13th in the NFL against the pass.
FanDuel: 233.5. Projection 248. The form says over.