NFL Week 2 · Sun, Sep 20, 1:00 PM ET
The number
- Vegas
- CAR -2.5
- total 43.5
- Our line
- CAR -1.2
- total 44.4
- Raw model
- ATL -3.8
- CAR 22.1 · ATL 25.9
Edge: spread 1.3 pts · total 0.9 pts · model weight 20%
Why
- 1.Our number makes it CAR by 1.2; Vegas has CAR by 2.5. That is a 1.3-point edge which is not enough to act on.
- 2.Power ratings: ATL #21, CAR #23 of 32 on opponent-adjusted efficiency; last season's ratings anchor the early-season number.
- 3.ATL's run game (120 rushing yds/game, 10th in the NFL) meets a CAR run defense that ranks dead last in the NFL (232 allowed).
- 4.CAR's pass game (387 passing yds/game, best in the NFL) meets a ATL pass defense that ranks 14th in the NFL (206 allowed).
- 5.Against the spread this season: ATL 0-1 (0%), CAR 0-1.
- 6.Injuries to weigh: ATL: QB M. Penix Jr. (questionable); ATL: QB T. Tagovailoa (questionable).
- 7.Trust level: 20% on our numbers and 80% on the market, with 1 game of data behind the thinner side. Ratings this early are pulled toward the league average.
The trenches
Offensive line against the defensive front. Grades are ours, from where each unit ranks on these numbers.
CAR line vs ATL front
| Metric | CAR | ATL allows |
|---|---|---|
| Line yards per carryyards the line is credited with on every run | 3.43 (#5) A | 2.47 (#6) B |
| Stuff rateruns stopped at or behind the line | 18% (#14) C | 28% (#4) A |
| Power success3rd/4th and 2 or less, converted on the ground | 0% (#21) C | 0% (#9) B |
| Sack ratesacks per dropback | 4% (#12) C | 4% (#22) D |
| Yards per carry | 4.1 (#12) C | 3.4 (#6) B |
ATL line vs CAR front
| Metric | ATL | CAR allows |
|---|---|---|
| Line yards per carryyards the line is credited with on every run | 2.58 (#25) D | 3.18 (#23) D |
| Stuff rateruns stopped at or behind the line | 25% (#22) D | 20% (#15) C |
| Power success3rd/4th and 2 or less, converted on the ground | 0% (#27) D | 33% (#15) C |
| Sack ratesacks per dropback | 14% (#31) F | 5% (#20) C |
| Yards per carry | 3.8 (#19) C | 6.6 (#32) F |
Receivers vs the secondary
Each passing game against the pass defense across from it, plus the receivers’ last games.
CAR passing vs ATL secondary
| Metric | CAR | ATL allows |
|---|---|---|
| Yards per pass play | 8.4 (#4) A | 4.4 (#6) B |
| Completion % | 52% (#22) D | 53% (#12) C |
| Explosive pass ratepasses of 16+ yards | 20% (#4) A | 11% (#16) C |
| Passing yards per game | 387 (#1) A | 206 (#14) C |
| Sack ratepressure the front gets home | 4% (#12) C | 4% (#22) D |
- Jalen Coker: 138 yds/game on 8.0 catches over the last game, 2 TD (138)
- Tetairoa McMillan: 75 yds/game on 5.0 catches over the last game (75)
- Chuba Hubbard: 38 yds/game on 3.0 catches over the last game, 1 TD (38)
ATL passing vs CAR secondary
| Metric | ATL | CAR allows |
|---|---|---|
| Yards per pass play | 4.2 (#30) F | 8.0 (#27) D |
| Completion % | 50% (#25) D | 55% (#15) C |
| Explosive pass ratepasses of 16+ yards | 14% (#12) C | 15% (#24) D |
| Passing yards per game | 118 (#31) F | 320 (#27) D |
| Sack ratepressure the front gets home | 14% (#31) F | 5% (#20) C |
- Bijan Robinson: 90 yds/game on 8.0 catches over the last game, 1 TD (90)
- Drake London: 29 yds/game on 2.0 catches over the last game (29)
CAR
- Points per game
- 37.0
- allows 59.0
- last game
- 37 pts/game
- allowing 59
- Rushing
- 91 yds/game
- allows 232
- Passing
- 387 yds/game
- allows 320
QB Bryce Young (361 pass yds/game, 3 TD, 1 INT) · RB Chuba Hubbard (49 rush yds/game) · WR Jalen Coker (138 rec yds/game)
ATL
- Points per game
- 13.0
- allows 20.0
- last game
- 13 pts/game
- allowing 20
- Rushing
- 120 yds/game
- allows 61
- Passing
- 118 yds/game
- allows 206
QB Cooper Rush (143 pass yds/game, 1 TD, 2 INT) · RB Bijan Robinson (83 rush yds/game) · WR Drake London (29 rec yds/game)
Injuries: QB M. Penix Jr. (questionable), QB T. Tagovailoa (questionable)
Props to watch
All props →Bijan Robinson went for 83 rushing yards on 21 carries in Week 1 (4.0 a carry).
CAR allows 232 rushing yards a game, dead last in the NFL against the run.
FanDuel: 84.5. Projection 89. No edge either way; the game script decides.
Bijan Robinson had 90 receiving yards on 8 catches in Week 1.
CAR allows 320 passing yards a game, 27th of 32 in the NFL against the pass.
FanDuel: 42.5. Projection 55. Form and matchup both say over.
Jalen Coker had 138 receiving yards on 8 catches in Week 1.
ATL allows 206 passing yards a game, 14th in the NFL against the pass.
FanDuel: 54.5. Projection 70. The form says over.