NFL Week 2 · Thu, Sep 17, 8:15 PM ET
The number
- Vegas
- BUF -4.5
- total 54.5
- Our line
- BUF -4.7
- total 55
- Raw model
- BUF -5.4
- DET 25.8 · BUF 31.2
Edge: spread 0.2 pts · total 0.5 pts · model weight 20%
Why
- 1.Our number makes it BUF by 4.7; Vegas has BUF by 4.5. That is a 0.2-point edge which is not enough to act on.
- 2.Power ratings: BUF #8, DET #18 of 32 on opponent-adjusted efficiency; last season's ratings anchor the early-season number.
- 3.BUF's pass game (344 passing yds/game, 4th in the NFL) meets a DET pass defense that ranks bottom five in the NFL (31st of 32) (382 allowed).
- 4.DET's run game (163 rushing yds/game, 4th in the NFL) meets a BUF run defense that ranks 21st in the NFL (109 allowed).
- 5.Against the spread this season: BUF 1-0 (100%), DET 0-1.
- 6.Trust level: 20% on our numbers and 80% on the market, with 1 game of data behind the thinner side. Ratings this early are pulled toward the league average.
The trenches
Offensive line against the defensive front. Grades are ours, from where each unit ranks on these numbers.
DET line vs BUF front
| Metric | DET | BUF allows |
|---|---|---|
| Line yards per carryyards the line is credited with on every run | 2.96 (#17) C | 2.62 (#9) B |
| Stuff rateruns stopped at or behind the line | 22% (#19) C | 26% (#9) B |
| Power success3rd/4th and 2 or less, converted on the ground | 50% (#15) C | 71% (#22) D |
| Sack ratesacks per dropback | 2% (#7) B | 6% (#14) C |
| Yards per carry | 4.5 (#9) B | 3.5 (#9) B |
BUF line vs DET front
| Metric | BUF | DET allows |
|---|---|---|
| Line yards per carryyards the line is credited with on every run | 2.76 (#20) C | 2.75 (#12) C |
| Stuff rateruns stopped at or behind the line | 16% (#7) B | 17% (#21) C |
| Power success3rd/4th and 2 or less, converted on the ground | 0% (#23) D | 100% (#26) D |
| Sack ratesacks per dropback | 6% (#14) C | 8% (#9) B |
| Yards per carry | 3.5 (#25) D | 3.8 (#15) C |
Receivers vs the secondary
Each passing game against the pass defense across from it, plus the receivers’ last games.
DET passing vs BUF secondary
| Metric | DET | BUF allows |
|---|---|---|
| Yards per pass play | 5.0 (#23) D | 5.7 (#15) C |
| Completion % | 65% (#10) B | 58% (#19) C |
| Explosive pass ratepasses of 16+ yards | 7% (#25) D | 15% (#22) D |
| Passing yards per game | 206 (#19) C | 272 (#25) D |
| Sack ratepressure the front gets home | 2% (#7) B | 6% (#14) C |
- Amon-Ra St. Brown: 67 yds/game on 10.0 catches over the last game, 2 TD (67)
- Sam LaPorta: 48 yds/game on 5.0 catches over the last game (48)
- Jameson Williams: 45 yds/game on 4.0 catches over the last game (45)
BUF passing vs DET secondary
| Metric | BUF | DET allows |
|---|---|---|
| Yards per pass play | 9.6 (#2) A | 5.9 (#18) C |
| Completion % | 59% (#12) C | 58% (#20) C |
| Explosive pass ratepasses of 16+ yards | 28% (#2) A | 14% (#20) C |
| Passing yards per game | 344 (#4) A | 382 (#31) F |
| Sack ratepressure the front gets home | 6% (#14) C | 8% (#9) B |
- Dalton Kincaid: 130 yds/game on 5.0 catches over the last game (130)
- DJ Moore: 100 yds/game on 5.0 catches over the last game, 1 TD (100)
- Khalil Shakir: 50 yds/game on 4.0 catches over the last game (50)
DET
- Points per game
- 31.0
- allows 30.0
- last game
- 31 pts/game
- allowing 30
- Rushing
- 163 yds/game
- allows 87
- Passing
- 206 yds/game
- allows 382
QB Jared Goff (206 pass yds/game, 2 TD, 0 INT) · RB Jahmyr Gibbs (156 rush yds/game) · WR Amon-Ra St. Brown (67 rec yds/game)
BUF
- Points per game
- 36.0
- allows 31.0
- last game
- 36 pts/game
- allowing 31
- Rushing
- 66 yds/game
- allows 109
- Passing
- 344 yds/game
- allows 272
QB Josh Allen (334 pass yds/game, 2 TD, 0 INT) · RB James Cook (57 rush yds/game) · WR Dalton Kincaid (130 rec yds/game)
Props to watch
All props →Dalton Kincaid had 130 receiving yards on 5 catches in Week 1.
DET allows 382 passing yards a game, bottom five in the NFL (31st of 32) against the pass.
FanDuel: 51.5. Projection 74. Form and matchup both say over.
DJ Moore had 100 receiving yards on 5 catches in Week 1.
DET allows 382 passing yards a game, bottom five in the NFL (31st of 32) against the pass.
FanDuel: 57.5. Projection 71. Form and matchup both say over.
Josh Allen threw for 334 yards in Week 1 (2 TD, 0 INT).
DET allows 382 passing yards a game, bottom five in the NFL (31st of 32) against the pass.
FanDuel: 248.5. Projection 283. Form and matchup both say over.